A risk not worth taking
Unexpected pitch from Mij Rahman - see below, arguing that a Trump win in the U.S. could ultimately be good for Europe. And just wrong/risky in my mind.
Actually I would argue that this is a risk not worth taking - it’s like what does not kill you makes you stronger, but it might just kill you.
A Trump win would undoubtedly impose a bad peace on Ukraine. The result likely will be a Ukraine which is not sustainable - which is obviously what Putin wants as it will present a chance for him to go in again to take more/all of Ukraine.
The bad peace imposed by Trump will be difficult for Zelensky to sell/manage at home. Likely political/social instability will result - especially dangerous in a country which is now the best armed/militarised state in Europe and with millions of expectant for change troops coming home. Without EU accession/NATO membership Ukraine will lack the security and economic anchor and likely millions or tens of millions of Ukrainians will move West - boosting far right anti immigration forces in Europe.
If Putin goes back in and takes the rest of the country not only will Russian tanks be up close to much more of NATO’s borders but Russia will have seized Ukraine’s now hugely impressive military industrial complex. Putin’s ability to wage war/threaten the rest of Europe will be expanded multiple times.
The net result of all this is Europe will be further destabilisation, from without and within, and at risk of capture by the forces of authoritarianism such as Putin and Xi.
Nice job Trump!
https://x.com/mij_europe/status/1853696024411263117?s=46&t=32_q5q9ehPzOjr0pU8ggAQ