In the cold light of day hard now not to see Biden as giving Putin some big wins:
First, NS2 has in effect been green lighted now. Only if Putin further attacks Ukraine will it be pulled. This was not the case pre-Summit. There was still a chance of it not being certified, it feels like it is now a done deal.
Second, Biden already gave Putin a second summit (first being Geneva), this time via Zoom call, now he is offering him a NATO summit with bigger powers, including the US, U.K., France, Italy and Germany. Did I miss something has NATO got an executive club of members that have more privileges than others? This is an insult to smaller NATO members like Poland and the Baltic states who are actually on the front line against Russia. I would have more faith in troops from the Balts or Poland holding NATO’s eastern flank than their Western counterparts as they clearly understand the threat.
This looks like an incredible diplomatic cock up by the Biden team that actually undermines NATO itself - it’s worse than the insult to France over the formation of AUKUS. This stuff really counts and undermines NATO unity.
And how does this look to Putin? He drove some tanks up to the border with Ukraine and brought splits and divisions in NATO. He got rewarded.
It’s a huge failing of diplomacy 101 by Biden and team. What were they thinking? Are they so eager to appease Putin?
And this summit in effect is a Yalta 2, what Putin wants as it’s the big European powers with the US going to talk about security guarantees involving other smaller countries in Europe.
Third, we now here that the Biden team are looking to soften up the Ukrainian stance over Minsk 2 related to greater autonomy for DPR and LPR. The Biden team need to wake up as Minsk 2 is already dead - it was dead on birth as the two sides understanding of the issues is diametrically opposed. It was useful to frame a ceasefire to halt the Illovaisk murders. But it is simply unimplementable. Putin wants autonomy for DPR and LPR as a means to sabotage the rest of Ukraine’s European orientation and undermine stability in Ukraine ready for further Russian intervention. Ukrainians know exactly what Putin means by autonomy, he is not being genuine. Guess maybe by returning to Minsk 2, time could be bought for Ukraine and it might just persuade Putin to pull troops back for the time being. But I doubt it, as Putin seems to have moved on from Minsk 2, also understanding as is it is unimplementable unless that is Biden bullies Ukraine to roll over.
Fourth, on sanctions if Putin goes in further to Ukraine it all sounded tough. But I worry that sanctions would not in effect be rolled out as soon as the first bullet flies. But with concern about making the conflict worse, worries over Russian retaliation in the energy sphere and the desire then to use the threat of sanctions to get Putin back to the negotiating table, likely the West will blink. It will wait. Putin knows this. While already the nuclear option of SWIFT sanctions has been taken off the table as the West knows Russia would immediately respond by cutting energy supplies to Europe.
Meanwhile, sanctions in the NSAA were removed. So sanctions risks around Russia have somehow been reduced.
Again, maybe this is all about buying time for Ukraine to build its defences, getting Russian tanks back from the border. But experience shows that Putin pushes the bayonet in, feels soft tissue gets concessions and just pushes for more. He sees and exploits weaknesses.