Listening to Trump, Musk, and their “peace” negotiators” Waltz, Rubio and Witkoff talk over the weekend it became apparent to me that they simply have no clue when it comes to Putin and Ukraine. And yes, as Zelensky rightly said, they seem to be operating in Russian disinformation space - taking the Russian talking points hook, line and stinker.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1893708230238351710?s=46&t=32_q5q9ehPzOjr0pU8ggAQ
https://x.com/slawomirdebski/status/1893758015750148469?s=46&t=32_q5q9ehPzOjr0pU8ggAQ
And as someone who has covered Ukraine since 1988, and called the invasion as far back as 2015, I think I have some authority to make observations herein.
I would draw attention to two articles herein - one where I spelt out the war was coming, and the second a pushback on the Trump/Musk views which appear to come from Mearsheimer.
https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-putins-next-move.htm
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/mearsheimer-should-be-ashamed-of?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
My main observation herein is that it would be suicide for Ukraine if Zelensky accepted Trump’s (or actually Putin’s) peace terms. Ukraine would fail to exist as a sovereign state and Ukrainians would risk the genocide and ethnic cleansing which was seen in Bucha and Mariupol. Trump and Musk have very selective historical memory herein.
Putin wants the whole of Ukraine - it’s emotional for him, and it’s not about NATO.
As is, Zelensky cannot accept the ceasefire terms as is - it would be political suicide for him, and would be the end of Ukrainian sovereignty. Most Ukrainians get that and that Putin will never leave them alone unless they are given some security assurances. Therein the best I would imagine are to have their defence in their own hands - being given the full list of weapons needed to defend themselves, or the State of Israel guarantee. Unfortunately Trump’s negotiating tactics with Putin have been so naive, so amateurish, that rather than having as the starting point a discussion about Ukraine’s NATO membership it has just all shifted East to where Russia would have had its fall back positions - Ukrainian demilitarisation. The Russians now will be looking to limit Ukrainian defences so they can invade again and take the whole country. The other angle which Trump and his muppets totally fell for was to get a ceasefire first, before holding presidential elections then a final peace deal. Russia knows that holding presidential elections will require a lifting of martial law and mobilisation, risking a mass overseas exit of Ukrainian males and the front line with it. Again, that’s the path to total Russian victory.
Question here what Ukraine gets in Trump’s deal? The answer is absolutely nothing apart from allowing it to have its face ripped of via the minerals deal.
Let’s see if Ukraine can play for time here and see if the Europeans can come up with a counter offer to Trump on Ukraine. For me it has to be the mother of all defence procurement deals - confiscate the $330 bn of CBR assets, double it with European defence orders and offer Trump up to a €1 trillion defence deal for Ukraine and European security over the next decade. That’s a huge number of US jobs delivered to Trump. Putin can never match that as it’s the equivalent of 50% of Russian GDP. And play to Trump’s ego, call it the Trump Defence of European Democracy Programme. Are Europeans clever enough to think of this - unlikely if their head in the sand approach to immobilised CBR assets are anything to go by over the past three years.
We have been arguing this for over two years but European leaders have had their heads in the sand.
This is a really interesting take. The point about Russia using a ceasefire to prepare for another invasion makes a lot of sense history shows they don’t just stop. The idea of a huge defense deal as a counteroffer is smart too, especially if it plays to Trump’s interests. But do you think Europe would actually go for something like that, or is it more of a long shot?