Democracy is not dead yet

Signs of life in the old dog yet

Reading the current dominant global media narrative one might imagine that “liberal Democracy” as a form of governance is already dead and buried as autocracy and kleptocracy appear rampant and new models of “iliberal democracy” are emerging as a potential cuckoo in the nest - therein Orban in Hungary, Trump in the U.S. and perhaps Le Pen, Fico Wilders et al in Europe.

But recent elections in big Emerging Markets - India, Poland, South Africa and Turkey - have offered some hope for more liberal models of Democracy. Elections due over the few weeks in the U.K., meanwhile, suggest a move back to the political centre which could also be one conclusion from recent European Parliament elections - at least the centre consolidated its position against a resurgent right. Meanwhile, street protests in Georgia suggest a popular groundswell of opinion in defence of liberal democracy as understanding what could be lost from the increasingly autocratic tendencies of the Georgia Dream administration. Elections later this year could still see liberal democracy triumph in Georgia. And in Ukraine - Ukrainians seem to understand better than most what they could lose if Putin wins and are laying down their lives in defence of European values and the liberal democratic tradition. Perhaps you only really value something when you are about to lose it, but the risk perhaps in developed markets is that once lost it might be too late.

The U.K. is particularly interesting as opinion polls suggest a landslide victory for Keir Starmer and for the Labour Party which he has dragged back to the centre ground while the incumbent Tories fragment in the battle for the extreme right now with the Reform party. But, despite the emergence of Reform, the polls still suggest a good two thirds support for centre and centre left parties - perhaps therein a counter-reaction to the failures of Brexit. The U.K. is moving back towards the mainstream in Western politics, ironic as others in the U.S. and France perhaps move in the opposite direction.

But trends in the U.K. are not isolated. The elections in Poland last year similarly saw the ousting of the populist socially conservative Justice and Law Party by liberal pro-European parties led by Civic Platform which also looks set to post a win in next year’s presidential elections.

Turkey has doubled dipped in elections - parliamentary last year and important local elections in March just gone. Turnout was high in both, testimony to the fact that Turks value the vote. While Erdogan and the AKP secured a surprise win in the presidential and parliamentary election in May 2023, and the opposition returned the favour in local elections in March this year, all sides accepted the results of the elections. After his drubbing in local elections Erdogan acknowledged that voters had spoken, particularly on inflation, and vowed to respond to their demands - doubling down in the battle against inflation. He has since reached out to the opposition for talks on a new constitution, a reach out which might help bridge some of the polarisation which has characterised Turkish politics for much of the AKP’s period in office. Likely Turkey’s new constitution will move the country back closer to a parliamentary based democracy which should introduce checks on the overbearing power of the presidency as is.

Similar concerns around Modi’s autocratic tendencies, and Hindu nationalist agenda, in India were similarly eased after his BJP was reined in by the surprisingly strong showing by the opposition in elections over the past month. Modi will now be constrained by the confines of a coalition government. But I think the Indian electorate showed its maturity and the ability of democracy still to act as a check on absolute power.

In South Africa headlines were all about the surprise 14% showing by Zuma’s MK in elections at the end of May. Moscow likely backed MK as one of its political “projects” but arguably it performed too well and forced the underperforming ANC into a reform coalition with the DA and IFP. Arguably this has brought forward South Africa’s democratic process by five years and it is now showing its maturity with President Ramaphosa speedily accepting the election result and agreeing to a coalition in the new Government of national Unity. The ANC-DA-IFP is a coalition representing liberal reform more likely looking West than to Russia for leadership.  The new government will finally have to deliver inclusive growth if it is not to head off the forces of reaction and state capture at the next election. Last chance saloon perhaps or else face a Zimbabwe style future.