Europe - faces a gas crisis this winter
I think it is pretty clear that when NS1 maintenance ends later this month Russia will not ramp back gas deliveries to Europe - currently running around 40% of normal levels. And likely Europe will face gas shortages this winter.
I think it’s clear that Russia has slowed gas deliveries already to Europe to slow pumping into storage because it is expecting a battle over gas this winter. There are few technical explanations for Russian actions - it’s pure geopolitical blackmail.
Putin will want to force Europe to the negotiating table - to get Ukraine to concede ground - and energy will be his weapon of choice, at least with Europe.
At this stage energy rationing seems very likely in that area of Central Europe most dependent on Russian gas - that means Austria, Southern Germany, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Likely governments will move to introduce rationing - that means retail has priority over industry and I think we will see the introduction of limitations to the working week, so 3-4 days weeks in industry. It will cause more global supply chain disruptions and more stagflation. What does that region produce? Cars, capital goods, general manufactures.
And likely rationing starts sooner rather than later.