Hegseth comes to Europe

I am trying to draw a few conclusions from Hegseth’s trip to NATO HQ earlier today but suffice to say that this was pretty seismic.

First, for a leader who is supposed to be the Art of the Deal negotiator, to throw away all you ace cards before hard negotiations have even begun seems to be a dereliction of duty. Hegseth might not get the Art of the Deal but I guess he understands the latter concept.

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-no-longer-has-the-trump-card?r=ynli4

I spelled out just how strong Trump’s negotiating position was in the piece above. Shame Trump & Hegseth failed to read this. But telling Ukraine No NATO and no borders as per 2014 is basically gifting two big wins to Putin and for nothing in exchange.

I am asking myself what Ukraine gets? Oh yes, it’s gets to gift the U.S. $500 billion in rare earth minerals in exchange for the sub-$100 billion in U.S. support for Ukraine paid out so far. Well, “paid out” is not a fair reflection of the reality as close to half this total actually never left the U.S. as it comprises US defence orders which stayed in the U.S., retaining U.S. jobs.

And Trump just gives alternative facts when he suggests US support for Ukraine has been $200-300bn and outspending Europe.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

The Kiel Institute is by far the best data set for tracking Western support for Ukraine and that suggests that the U.S. is being outspent 40-60 by Europe.

A reader gifted me the great line that under Trump the U.S. is behaving like Cassus’ fire brigade in its approach to Ukraine. I like the idea of Trump as a modern day Roman emperor I was just debating which one - Cassus, Nero, Caligula, or Commodus, the list is long. Personally I like the story of the Emperor with no clothes.

Second, Hegseth’s message to Europe was pretty stark on Ukraine - it’s your problem. We will help cut a deal with Russia - but policing that is up to you. And if you deploy troops in Ukraine as peacekeepers, they will not benefit from NATO article 6 defence. That is surely a green light for Putin to test that defence in Ukraine, meaning that Ukraine and Europe will hardly be secure as a result of a peace agreed by Trump.

I worry now for Ukraine - let’s hope at least that Trump agrees to sell the full spectrum of military kit to Ukraine to help it defend itself. Europe can easily write the cheque or those rare earths can be used.

Third, and linked above, all this surely sends a clear message to all that NATO is dead. U.S. allies rode to its defence after 911, joining it in military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq - many against their better instincts. Russia is now the existential threat to Europe - we are asking for help, where is the U.S. under Trump? Literally MIA. In our hour of need the U.S. is not there. This is a wake up call for Europe but also surely for the U.S. The reality is that U.S. national security interests significantly diverge from those of Europe (see my post from last week). And when the U.S. comes knocking, as it likely will, over China, Europe might well remember their experience on Ukraine. Europe might then have priorities elsewhere rather than helping the U.S. defend its ego/hegemony.

The conclusions to Europe are now surely crystal clear:

* NATO is on the way out, look for new security arrangements and there needs to be massive investment in Europe’s own defence. We can no longer rely on the U.S.;

* Look for alternative defence and security partners to the U.S. - think of Turkey, the Gulf and even China itself.

* We really have a problem now on Ukraine.