Iran is playing a game of chicken with Trump
One read out, or conclusion, from Trump’s total failure in Ukraine peace talks, and also on Gaza, is that he will pivot quickly to try and secure a quick deal with Iran over its nuclear programme.
Trump likes quick deals, and whereas reaching agreements over Ukraine and Gaza look hellishly complex and difficult, a deal with Iran looks like low hanging fruit, or chicken for Trump.
Iran seems to have reached the same conclusion (that Trump needs a deal) and is now engaged in a game of chicken with the US - TACO chicken, assuming that Trump is too fearful of going to war and so desperate for a foreign policy win, that he will agree to a soft deal with Iran, a kind of JCPOA2.
That seemed to be the message from Iranian leader Khamenei this week, suggesting a holdout position from Iran that their red line is still maintaining sufficient enrichment capability to give them the option of securing a nuclear bomb in the future.
The Iranians would no doubt still use the example of Saddam Hussein’s ousting as an example that the West simply cannot be trusted, ultimately wants regime change in Iran, and might also add in Ukraine as a similar recent example. Would Russia have attacked Ukraine had Kyiv not surrendered its huge nuclear arsenal back in 1994 for flimsy assurances over their sovereignty from the great powers in the ill fated Budapest memorandum? I think not, and neither do the Ukrainians.
Trump himself seems genuinely fearful of nuclear proliferation - at least if you listen to his former NSC staff, including Fiona Hill. But what Trump fails to understand is that his wishy washy support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity is a green light, in effect, for nuclear proliferation - see arguement above. Indeed, every mid range power these days seems to see nuclear capability as their only sure fire defence in an increasingly polarised and insecure world- including Ukraine, but also Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Poland, et al. And methinks that Iran is no different, and likely its determination to hold on to nuclear capability has just been accentuated which will make negotiations that much more difficult unless TACO and cuts a soft deal.
How long herein Trump can hold Israel back from unilaterally striking Iran, assuming a soft JCPOA2 is agreed, is open to question. The intelligence community still thinks that Israel lacks the military capability to strike long lasting damage to Iran’s nuclear capability without U.S. support. Politically also it seems unlikely that even Netanyahu and the Israeli far right would risk the wrath of even a TACO Trump, by unilaterally striking Iran, when the U.S. administration is still providing so much cover for Israel on Gaza and the West Bank and when the centre of gravity in the international community seems to moving against Israel over its treatment of Palestinians.
Trump needs to be careful, or he will be remembered as the 'Chamberlain of the 21st Century'. I applaud his resistance to conflict but there is no deal to be made with Iran as the resulting delay will add another nuclear player to the chessboard and that's something the sane world will regret.