Iran/Israel - gauging craziness
A great quote in the FT today from an un-named Iranian regime official warning Israel and the West that “we’re crazier than you” to ward off against further escalation from Israel.
Looking back over Western foreign policy decisions (generally towards the Middle East in recent years) and politics in developed markets (Brexit, Trump, et al), and indeed internal politics in Israel these days and it is tempting to respond - don’t bet on that!
What is clear though now is that Iran does not want escalation and absolutely not a direct war with the U.S. which it would be very likely to lose. Arguably it wins from the long game, avoiding war, getting closer to enriching sufficient weapons grade uranium for a nuclear weapon. Its strategic patience approach has also enabled it to build a crescent of influence and leverage across the region from the Houthis in Yemen to Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, et al, and these assets would surely be at risk in a direct war with the U.S. Similarly since the domestic unrest a few years back Iran’s agenda has turned to trying to improve the economy and this has seen important resets in relations with Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, and a deepening friendship with China. A war with the U.S. could be devastating for the Iranian economy and could expose the regime again to internal political pressures.
Also for the Biden administration a direct war with Iran would come at the worst time possible - just prior to difficult elections and likely to push gas prices higher. A war with Iran would also divert critical resources further away from Ukraine.
It is less clear cut at this stage that escalation would not suit Israel:
First things first, if time on the nuclear issue is on Iran’s side it absolutely is not when it comes to Israel. Israel though likely will need US military assets, and its leverage with Gulf states, to facilitate military strikes to degrade/erode Iran’s nuclear programme. Escalation now drawing in the U.S. to strike down Iran’s nuclear program surely would be advantageous to Israel.
Israel likely also sees opportunity in the current political flux in the U.S. - could a weak Biden presidency, facing difficult elections, resist pressure to go to war with Iran for Israel if we see a cycle of tit for tat escalation? Likely not. It is also less clear whether a Trump presidency would go to war for Israel given Trump’s stated aversion to wars (dating back to his own bone spur days) - albeit that depends on whether we see Iran hawks like Flynn et al join the administration. So far Israel, if it is going to resolve its Iran problem, terminally, the time might be nigh.
Second, escalation with Iran likely changes the international media focus away from Gaza just when Israel has been struggling against the tide of international opinion. Playing tough now on the Iran escalation front also perhaps has the advantage of keeping Western allies quiet over Israeli plans to go into Rafah in Gaza. One could imagine a quid pro quo there between Israel and the West - Israel pulls a punch now with Iran following its latest missile strikes at Israel but the West looks the other way as Israel lands a knock out punch against Hamas in Rafah.
Third, escalation now with Iran likely eases PM Netanyahu’s domestic political and legal problems. It likely keeps the war cabinet in place for the time being, delaying elections and Netanyahu’s own reckoning with the electorate and perhaps the courts.
So when we talk about risks Israel seems to have more interest to go for escalation. I guess the question is what constraints the West can impose on Israel - if any.