Moscow - let’s talk?

Funny to hear a narrative being pushed by various Russian sources that there have been behind the scenes peace talks between the US and Russia and Moscow has now stalled these because of the successful Ukrainian offensive in Kharkhiv.

Total bullshit, excuse my French.

First, the US obviously knew about this offensive, likely expected success, so why would they have any interest in talking peace before giving the Ukrainians a chance to kick Russian butt? And D.C. clearly has an interest in as much Russian butt being kicked as possible. The US wants to see as much Russian military capability destroyed in this conflict as possible. That’s a huge win for the US, and all this US kit heading to Ukraine is a cheap investment therein. 

Second, if anyone was doing back door peace talks then it might be the French or the Germans but don’t see them having much leverage in Kyiv.

Third, likely this talk of backdoor US peace talks with Russia is aimed at sowing division between Kyiv and D.C., but at this stage I don’t think anyone is stupid enough to believe the lies coming out of Moscow.

Fourth, if anything, I would wager this is all Kremlin reverse speak - actually an appeal for peace talks with the West and perhaps laying the seed with the Russian public that this might be the way out now.

Clearly Moscow faces a stark choice now: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine - which seems inevitable given the current troop force deployments, supply chains and momentum on Ukraine’s side - and sue for peace; or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD, or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities. 

On mass mobilisation, Putin has had this option for many months but has always baulked and opted for piece meal, stop gap kind of approaches. These have just failed for sure - sending more poorly trained cannon fodder to the front. He has blinked I think because he is actually unsure that the Russian people would buy into total war with Ukraine, and by proxy the West. And remember this is not like WW2 where the Soviet Union was not fighting alone but with the U.K., then the US and other Allies, but it would be Russia alone vs the combined West, with Ukraine, that’s a combined GDP of $40 trillion vs $1.5 trillion, and defence spending of what $1.5 trillion plus versus $100bn max. Russia cannot win. And remember here that, unlike WW2 when Soviets were asked to fight to defend their own land against invasion, in this case Russians would be being asked to fight for someone else’s lands - and someone that they have been told are their brothers and sisters. And they are clearly the invaders.

Let’s not also forget when we talk about general mobilisation it’s a question of mobilisation to what ends? To put what 1 million troops in the field? But those 1 million troops need arming, training, feeding and if Russia is struggling to already do that for the 150,000 troops it currently has in Ukraine, how will it hope to do that quickly for 1 million troops. This cannot help quickly and arguably it will just provide more canon fodder of Russians to die in a foreign field in Ukraine. The risk is that they come home in yet more body bags and cause domestic social and political unrest in Russia. 

WMD?

Again Putin had the chance and failed to pull the trigger therein so far as he knows these are only really deterrents and once he does unleash them we are in a whole new ball game, risk of WW3, and a chain of events which will be very difficult to manage but where he is clearly seen as the aggressor/mad guy and loses most of his friends internationally, including China, et al.

So my bet after some attempt at more intensive airstrikes against Ukrainian cities - as we saw yesterday against Kharkhiv - aimed at implying Russia still has gas in the tank. (It does not have much) - I think Putin tries to open serious peace talks, maybe thru Turkey. But he will have to hurry up as the ground in Ukraine, and possibly even Moscow, is shifting quickly under his feet.

At this stage a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine is entirely possible - including that held before Feb 24, including Crimea, and even talk about potential splits in Moscow and risks to Putin’s stay in power. Watch this space.

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