NATO decision - a win for SWINN

And Turkey shows it looks West

Erdogan, by finally green lighting Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, again showed his pragmatism and ability always to do 180s when required.

He negotiated hard, right up to the last minute, and got real wins with assurances from the SWINNS on the Kurdish issue and from the US on F16s. He had his call with Biden and will get his one on one with Biden at Madrid. He comes back in from the cold with the West.

The alternative would have been the biggest crisis between the West and Turkey since the 1970s and the Cyprus crisis. That would have risked Turkey’s isolation from the West which likely would have made a difficult balance of payments crisis critical. The lira would have been plunged into intensive care.

As is Turkey markets are calm this morning - not rallying but at least not collapsing which likely would have been the case if Erdogan had upheld his veto.

Sense here that US Treasury officials’ visit to Turkey last week played some role also - F16 financing, Halkbank likely topics.

Erdogan remains in the game for the 23’ elections. This is not a game changer for him therein but at least it’s not a killer blow as a balance of payments crisis surely would have been.

And the big loser here is Putin. Many Turks told me that Turkey could not choose between Russia and the West, actually many said Erdogan would choose Putin. Well Erdogan did not which just shows that in the end Turkey is anchored into the West. When push comes to shove, Turks look West.