Putin is bluffing, again

The fact that Russia has launched a big PR campaign this morning in response to the long overdue decision of the Biden administration to give Ukraine permission to use US supplied long range missiles for limited attacks in Russia tells me a number of things:

First, Moscow is worried about the decision - it worries that its forces will now be increasingly vulnerable to such attacks.

Second, Moscow sees weakness and division in the West and sees an opportunity to exploit this. It sees weakness herein between the Biden and Trump teams, even within the GOP, potentially between the US and Europe, and then within Europe - the latter with Germany still dragging its feet over the use of German TAURUS missiles by Ukraine.

Former Russian President Medvedev - now known for his crazed tweets - tweeted a message this morning noting that Russia had changed its nuclear doctrine to include missiles supplied by a nuclear power, but used by a non nuclear power and against Russian territory as risking a response by Russia, with potential use of WMD against Ukraine or NATO targets.

Russia is not going to resort to WMD for a number of reasons:

First, use of WMD, especially against NATO targets would risk mutual destruction, and Putin himself seems to value his own life above all else. Everyone else is expendable. Brave man!

Second, Russia warned previously back in 2022 of the potential use of WMD, but opted against this likely as they would be ineffective (tactical battlefield nuclear weapons at least) and would serve to alienate Russia from friends and foes alike. China, in particular, would see first use of WMD as hugely detrimental to its own agenda of calming global markets.

Third, Russia already changed its nuclear doctrine to extend its umbrella of the motherland to include occupied territories in Ukraine. But Ukraine has already used long range NATO supplied missiles (Storm Shadow and Scalp) in these territories, particularly Crimea, without any Russian WMD response, or particular action against NATO.

Not amid threats of WMD use, NATO apparently warned that this would provoke a huge retaliate strike against Russian assets in Ukraine. He should assume the same this time around - well at least until Trump takes office.

Putin’s bluff was and has been constantly called - Putin is terrified of getting into a conventional war with NATO which he would likely lose in weeks.

Fourth, similarly, it’s difficult to see how US permission for Ukrainian use of long range missiles against Russia is such an escalation. Ukraine invaded Kursk region, Russia, and Russia did little in response. Ukraine is now reported to have used long range, NATO supplied missiles in Kursk region, Russia, so how is this escalation beyond the initial invasion?

Fifth, Russia has escalated against Ukraine in recent months, in anticipation of the U.S. elections and their aftermath - note the deployment of over 10,000 North Korean troops now to Kursk region. This is Putin’s typical MO - escalating before talks. I see the current rhetoric around WMB in a similar vein. But Putin is assuming he will have to sit down and talk peace with Trump at some time over the next few months. This will be difficult, if not impossible, if Russia has escalated to use WMD in Ukraine and has become an international pariah, even for the likes of China.

More likely Russia will respond with more assymetric warfare - the attack this week on an undersea cable between Germany and Scandinavia fits this narrative. We should expect more of the same, but particularly targeted at Europe, not the U.S.

Putin is a bully - he exploits weakness. He now sees that with the new Trump administration in the US. Trump should not be pulled in by Putin’s games. Trump should call Putin’s bluff.