Putin is like a mafia boss
European gas prices look to be testing new highs as Gazprom says it going to close NS1 at month end to check for problems. One can assume that it will find problems and gas supply to Europe will go to zero at some time over the next few weeks.
Indeed, I think the base case for Europe has to be zero supplies of gas from Russia. It should plan for this eventuality now.
Putin is like a mafia king where he uses blackmail and menace to get what he wants. He has zero morals apart from loyalty to the mob family.
In many respects he is easy to read.
His army is losing in Ukraine, because finally he is being outgunned, outfought and outthought by Ukraine, and has limited military options but going WMD. But these are really only useful tools of deterrent.
His two tools now of escalation are provoking some nuclear incident at Zaporizhiya NPP - he feels he can play this card, as he has the option of deniability and can blame the Ukrainians.
And then he has the energy card in Europe, which he is already playing.
And it’s so obvious what he wants, he wants Europe on its knees and begging the Ukrainians to agree to any peace terms he offers - which at the moment is he keeps everything he occupies. The problem is that Putin needs Europe to have leverage over Ukraine, but they don’t really as long as there are enough Western allies to continue arming and financing the Ukrainians. And at this point in time, the US, the UK, the Balts, Poles, et al, get the long term threat from Putin and are willing to continue to back Ukraine, even though likely we see wobbles from the European appeasers - France, Germany and likely even Italy.
Remember here, Ukraine is willing to fight, it just needs arms and finance to continue with its efforts to liberate its own territory.
But in Europe we are likely to have a battle of wills, how long before Old Europe cracks - the Germans, France, and Italians likely. But does that make a difference? Don’t think it does given the support of the US, et al to Ukraine. Guess Putin might be hoping the US midterms might change things, as might the UK leadership contest. But actually I doubt either will, in which case, Putin will have to wait until US presidential elections. But by that time, his military might be destroyed and left to ride home to Moscow, or Crimea, on horseback.