Putin no longer has the Trump card

Trump should call Putin’s bluff

It is quite extraordinarily how the fortunes of President elect Trump and President Putin of Russia have changed since they last met back in 2019.

Back then at the G20 summit in Canada Trump was still poleaxed by domestic legal proceedings, the Mueller report and accusations of him being the Moscow Candidate, an image not helped by the  disastrous prior year summit meeting with Putin in Helsinki. The concern then was that Putin had something on Trump - pee pee tapes, et al - which somehow explained Trump’s fawning overtures to Putin. Trump seemed genuinely enamoured with Putin, perhaps with his aura of power, and menace. Something perhaps that Trump aspires to himself, secretly, or even not too secretly.

Putin had ruled Russia with an iron rod over the prior 20 years, rebuilt Moscow’s great power image, and supposedly also its military might. Russia had succeeded in putting the West on the back foot in an array of international settings, from Syria, to Libya and Africa through the activities of the Wagner brigade. In Ukraine Putin had annexed Crimea (illegally) and militarily intervened in Donbas and was continuing to intervene therein to destabilise Ukraine. Putin’s interventions in Syria, Africa and even Belarus had the aim to drive migrants to Europe thereby destabilising the European economic, social and political fabric, promoting far right and far left centrifugal forces in Europe. He backed Brexit and far right and far left candidates in Western democracies, seemingly to great effect. Meanwhile, he had Europe on his energy hook thru its energy dependency on Russia, and was gradually tightening the noose there via North Stream et al, and shutting down various other gas supply routes. Putin appeared to pull all the strings, geopolitically. He also benefited seemingly from the ultimate backstop of support from President Xi in China through the Partnership without Limits consummated at the Beijing Winter Olympics just weeks before his fateful invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin and his authoritarian allies seemed to be on the ascendency and Western Liberal Market Democracy on the decline/backfoot.

Fast forward just fives years and President elect Trump is basking in the glory of a landslide US election victory. Likely this will prove to be a red wave, capturing the presidency, and both chambers of Congress. He controls the Supreme Court, and thereby the judiciary and hence all levers of Federal power. Legal cases pending against him are likely to be dropped, while the recent Supreme Court ruling appears to make POTUS literally above the law. His powers are unparalleled in US history. His political capital is now huge, with world leaders queuing up now to kiss the ring. Even if Putin had pee pee tapes to use against him, so what, as Trump earlier boasted he could likely walk down fifth Avenue and shoot someone with no legal consequences. Trump, can call Putin’s bluff on whatever kompromat he has on him because he has proven to have a Teflon like ability to ride through the biggest of scandals.

Contrast all this with Putin whose invasion of Ukraine has proven to be a catastrophe of epic proportions for Russia. Almost three years in Russia, a supposed great power, has been unable to defeat Ukraine, a third or fourth rate military power at best at the onset of the invasion. A war which was meant to be over in two weeks has lasted over 1,000 days and is nowhere near a conclusion. Russia has lost perhaps half a million men, and maybe half its conventional military capability - so much so that it is now forced to field Second World War kit in battle in Ukraine.

Ukraine, a country with no navy has managed to defeat the Russian Black Sea fleet which has been forced to flee its Sebastopol naval base in Crimea, and is unable to sail much of the Black Sea for fear of being hit by Ukrainian drones and missiles. Russia fought to secure a land corridor to Crimea but has found the peninsula itself to be unsustainable and that every same land corridor now a white elephant. Russian military technology had been exposed as crap with NATO second or third generation kit in use by Ukraine beating fourth of fifth generation Russian kit. Russian defence sales have collapsed and Russian geopolitical leverage with it. Who wants to buy Russian S400s now? U.s Patriots are in high demand, with the order books full. The Russian economy is weighed down with sanctions. Russia has to pay top dollar for critical imports and offer discounts for its exports. Inflation is rife and its central bank has had to jack up policy interest rates to 21%, while the rouble is back approaching record lows. It has lost access to $330 billion in central bank reserves and Russia inc likely close to $400 billion plus in assets immobilised overseas. The overall cost of the conflict to Russia is already close to $1 trillion, half one year’s Russian GDP. Russia has lost the European energy market forever, as Europe accelerates the climate transition from Russian carbon energy, and has diversified to other suppliers - like Algeria, Central Asia and the Gulf. This was a €50 billion annual business for Russian just for gas. It is never coming back. Meanwhile, the partnership with no limits, has exposed Russia as not only the junior partner, but actually the runt of the litter. China has not provided no limits support to Russia but couched its support so as not to annoy the West. As a result Russia has had to scrape the barrel by going cap in hand to North Korea and Iran for weapons and now troops. Just how low has Russian been forced to go. And, let’s not forget that the war in Ukraine was going so badly that only a year back Putin faced an existential threat from the Prigozhin coup - he came close to losing power. Russia has been exposed as a declining colonial power - the whole world knows it only Russians have yet to come to the harsh reality.

Putin goes into any talks with Trump in a critically weak position. Yes he can continue the war, as can Ukraine, for some time yet, but it will just kill hundreds of thousands more Russians, waste huge amounts more resources and finance and still leave a risk of a Prighozin 2.

Trump might not realise it but he goes into potential talks with Putin from a position of overwhelming strength. Trump needs a Ukraine peace deal much less than Putin. If Trump fails to agree any such deal, so what? What are the consequences for the US? Not much. Ukraine has shown it is willing to fight, and even if the US pulls financing Europe has to continue writing the cheques as the best way of defending itself against inevitable future Russian aggression. And if the cash is short Europe can dip into the $330 billion in immobilised Russian assets to continue to fund Ukraine. Ukraine and Europe will inevitably continue to put big orders for US defence equipement - in almost any scenario, and which US President is going to say no to defence orders for literally hundreds of billions of dollars from Europe. That represents millions of US jobs for Trump to secure. Putin literally has no leverage now over Trump, and Trump should play very hardball.

I would argue that Trump is being presented with the mother of all opportunities for the greatest peace deal ever. Why he would not use all his leverage to extract maximum concessions from Putin.

And what does Putin bring to the table? What concessions can Putin make to Trump?

Let’s just imagine though the deal suggested by JD Vance - Putin keeps all the territory in Ukraine, secures neutral status for Ukraine and no NATO membership, and the only concessions to Ukraine is that it still gets to buy Western weapons to enable it to put up some sort of defence to Russia. What is Putin giving in exchange there? Nothing. Surely the leverage the West has here now is significant in terms of it can offer sanctions moderation for Russia to withdraw to borders as per February 2022, or better 1991. Russia is brought back into the international community and can start to rebuild trust. But Ukraine has to be given the means to defend itself - which means either NATO membership, security guarantees or the US has to give it the full range of Western military technology so it can defend itself. If NATO is not willing to bring Ukraine in, then Ukraine has to be given the tools to defend itself - the Israel/South Korean status. Key for Ukraine is that it needs to have security, sufficient financing and a real EU accession perspective to anchor reforms.

Trump is a lucky politician for sure and I would argue that he has been presented with a set of circumstances giving him the opportunity to make the deal of the century on Ukraine.

Trump needs to be prepared to walk away. And the advantage he has is that Ukraine is willing to fight on while the consequences of such an outturn to the US are minimum - but potentially they are existential to Putin. Trump can accentuate Putin’s pain by offering to supply Ukraine with the full array of US conventional military kit if he fails to sign up to a peace deal which leaves Ukraine secure, and economically and politically sustainable. More and better US kit will mean the longer Putin leaves it the worse it gets in the battlefield for Russia in Ukraine.

Does Trump really have the Art of the Deal or is he just Putin’s tool and full of crap? We will now soon find out. Putin is weak, Trump has all the cards. Let’s see if he can actually play a great hand to clean up the table. If not - what a loser Trump would be in that he was gifted a scenario of a deal of the century in Ukraine and bottled it. That would be sad for Ukraine as selling them out now would see the likely collapse of Ukraine and devastating consequences then for Europe as an emboldened Russia would be better armed with the addition of Ukraine’s huge and tech impressive military industrial complex, and seeing a green light from Trump for further conquest in Europe by Russia.