Putin plays Trump for a fool

So Putin is not, after all, coming to peace talks over Ukraine in Istanbul.

Putin initially offered direct talks with Zelensky in Istanbul as a counter to Europe’s push for a 30 day ceasefire. Europe had threatened sanctions on Russia if it did not agree to a ceasefire. By offering direct talks Moscow seemed to aim to take momentum out of further sanctions efforts. Trump then pulled the plug on Europe by demanding that Zelensky attend talks in Istanbul even without first agreeing to a ceasefire. It seemed evident there that Trump was/is loathed to impose additional sanctions on Russia. Zelensky bowed to pressure by Trump and agreed to attend talks with Putin in Istanbul. Now Putin has pulled out of those talks, downgrading them to talks at foreign minister level.

So what can we read from all this?

First, Putin has zero intention of engaging in serious peace talks. He is playing for time, presumably because he thinks a long war works in Russia’s favour.

Second, Trump seems unwilling to impose any sanction on Russia - indeed, Putin is running rings around Trump, making him appear like a fool, or Russian asset, or both. Putin will read from Trump’s weakness that his bad behaviour and foot dragging over peace has no downside. So he will continue this malign action.

Third, I guess the saving grace from no direct Zelensky - Putin meeting in Istanbul is at least there will be no high profile, public fight/walk out, a re-run of the Oval Office ambush. At least Zelensky avoided being blamed for the no show in Istanbul - surely Putin will/should take the rap for that.

The Putin - Zelensky meeting was inevitably going to end in a big fight as the two sides are still just so far apart and that very little preparation has been done by Trump Sherpas in the run up to a meeting. A disaster might have been averted - some might argue that foreign ministers might now be better placed to do more serious, preparation on the peace process. But I think not - the two sides are still miles apart and Putin’s actions in pulling his Istanbul trip just affirms that Putin is not interested in peace at this stage. And, Trump appears unwilling to do whatever it takes to force Putin to the negotiating table - neither increasing sanctions on Russia or ramping up military supplies to Ukraine. Trump is unwilling to do anything to weaken Russia’s position. Why? Well we go into the reverse Nixonian discussion, or Trump might just be scared of Putin or he might be a Russian asset as many have suggested.

At this stage peace seems as far off as ever. Putin seems determined to wage a long war, assuming he can get better terms by playing hard to get with a weak, ill-informed, easily influenced/manipulated and chaotic U.S. president. And Zelensky resigned to the same outcome, rather than being forced to accept a bad peace.