Recognition of DPR/LPR sends ominous signal

Today Putin recognised DPR and LPR. This is a significant step as in effect that means the end of the Minsk 2 peace process. Minsk 2 was the ceasefire agreement which ended major battles in 2015 whereupon the Ukrainian military was facing significant defeat.

The Ukrainian side will not be too unhappy with this move - they might not say it but there was a lack of enthusiasm to re-integrate the two separatist regions - they were too far gone in terms of Russian propaganda. And to be fair Kyiv hated Minsk 2 and never wanted to implement it as they knew the requirement for autonomy for LPR and DPR could be used to stop the rest of Ukraine’s shift West - this was Putin’s intention. So Putin did them a favour and he a) has to pay to support another 3.5 million people, in a poor region; b) will face sanctions for this move.

Question though really what Putin does from here:

First, the territory claimed by DPR and LPR runs further into Donbas - including the important Ukrainian port of Mariupol. So is the Russian army going to push on to take more territory? Very likely yes.

Second, does he assume this just inflames sentiment in Kyiv? Bringing a military response from Kyiv? See above, unlikely. But I think here Putin is constructing a false flag excuse for broader intervention. 

Third, the Minsk 2 deal is dead, as is the ceasefire, so hostilities will resume I guess?

Minsk 2 was Putin’s way of halting Ukraine’s Western orientation - he saw it as suggesting a Federal solution with DPR and LPR having a veto on issues such as EU and NATO membership. So with these two regions gone, Putin’s hope of a Federal construct for Ukraine is also gone. So what is the game plan now to stop Ukraine’s constant move West since 1991. Agreeing independence for DPR and LPR does nothing to stop that process - they might even accelerate it.

So what is Putin going to do to stop the rest of Ukraine’s shift West? And herein in Putin’s press conference today he seemed clearly intent of stopping this. The obvious fear is further escalation using some or all of those 200,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders.

On the latter note a major upsurge in violence across the contact line this week - ten times the violence. And serious escalations - including Russian reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory (clearly not true but again false flag operations). And really significant for me the Russian defence minister arguing Ukraine could easily get nuclear capability. The latter for me suggests Russia is primed for a Russo-Ukraine war proper.

Risks looming of the biggest war in Europe since WW2 is coming - bad for Europe. Putin will be drawing the second Iron Curtain across Europe. The Post Cold War Peace Dividend just ended. We are all going to have to spend a lot more on defence.

And major sanctions on Russia to follow - I would expect sanctions for the recognition of DPR and LPR as this is the equivalent of the annexation of Crimea.