Russia - the Kremlin has more tables than IKEA
What to make of the Putin - Lavrov - Shoigu sessions today?
Well Forget about what was said, look at the tables. It’s really crazy but we are back to early 1980s Soviet studies, Kremlinology, trying to look at settings, for messaging as to what is going on. The fact the long table was pulled out again and Putin was placed far distant from Lavrov and Shoigu suggests Putin is trying to send a message that he is still undecided on the course of action.
Then Putin asked Lavrov for his advice, and Lavrov hinting that there is still room for a diplomatic solution. But even he hinted again that time has limits.
And Shoigu in civilian clothes, again might hint that the military are not yet about to strike. But Shoigu’s message that the drills are close to completion suggests the Russian military are prepared - and they can use the drill excuse to back down.
Maybe no further attack for a few more days - maybe not Feb 16 as suggested by some Western media sources reading of US intelligence - but for me it is still live thru the end of March and the annual Russian troop conscription cycle in April.
But Moscow needs concessions still - and I just cannot see where they can come from. The Biden - Putin call Saturday appeared to achieve very little. And President Zelensky this morning categorically ruled out pulling its NATO bid - even though the words of the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.K. were twisted to this effect earlier today.
I still ask myself what Putin will have achieved from the latest escalation - and I still conclude his position has been weakened: Ukraine and Western resolve to stand up to Russian bullying affirmed, Ukraine armed at accelerated pace. And his bluff called - Putin not prepared to pull the trigger when faced with a unified Ukraine and West.
And a next to last point - it amazes me how poorly Putin always calls Ukraine. He fundamentally misreads it. His use of bullying and bribery during the Orange Revolution, the Euromaydan and now just unifies Ukraine against him and accelerates the country’s now unstoppable shift West.
But if Putin backs down then I think the Biden teams strategy of calling out Putin on the intelligence they are receiving will have been genius. Their message, even by withdrawing US nationals and non essential diplomats, to Putin is you go in at your own risk. We are not going to bow down to you but will prepare brutal sanctions and you will have to win a military campaign in Ukraine. The latter won’t be easy and we (the West) will do our utmost to back the Ukrainians and increase the cost to Russia therein. The Biden team seem to be willing to play Putin at his own high stakes poker game.