Russia - writing on the wall
This piece last year seems remarkably prescient now. Indeed, as far back as 2015 and the then Ukrainian debt restructuring I warned that the biggest risk to Ukrainian bonds was of a defining war between Ukraine and Russia which in my view was very likely over the then medium to longer term. Unfortunately it’s one of those times when I would prefer to have been wrong.
https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-putins-next-move.html