Syria - winners & losers
Events in Syria have moved fast in recent days with the overthrow, finally, of the brutal and hated Assad regime.
Why did it take so long?
I guess the history books will tell a story of yet more Western foreign policy failures towards the region - red lines not held to, failing to counter Russian and Iranian intervention, et al. But both Biden and Trump teams are now claiming the win - victories have many parents, defeat is an orphan! The reality is I think is clear and it is that Assad’s allies, Russia and Iran had been much weakened. Russia by the extended war in Ukraine. Iran by Israel’s succesful assault on Hezbollah its proxy in Lebanon, and then Iran direct. Turkey with its own simmering problems hosting over 4 million Syrian refugees and nervous that an over confident Israel, and perhaps a newly installed Trump administration might act to further strengthen Turkey’s nemesis, the Kurdish YPG in Syria, saw an imperative to act. It saw an opportunity in supporting an offensive by HTS to force Assad to the negotiating table - to negotiate a more inclusive settlement in Syria to bring refugees home and to contain Syrian Kurdish groups within a better functioning Syrian state. Note that this latter objective also dove tailed with hints of a new Kurdish peace process within Turkey which remarkably saw the leader of the nationalist party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli, reach out to imprisoned Kurdish leader, Ocalan.
As was, the HTL offensive surprised everyone - I think the Turks and Israelis alike - both in terms of the capabilities of the HTL but also the dire state of Assad regime forces. The latter just melted away - perhaps helped by HTL leaders, likely under Turkish coaching, suggesting a more inclusive governance model for Syria going forward.
It is now perhaps possible to think through the consequences, winners and losers and global impact of events in Syria over the past week.
Undeniably the biggest winners are the Syrian people who have finally thrown off a brutal regime and can now have a hope of a better future. Already several hundred thousand Syrians have returned across the border from Turkey, and likely many of the 5-6 million Syrian refugees overseas will follow suit. The scenes from Assad’s prisons being cleared are truly heart wrenching.
The smooth transfer of power from the Assad government, to the rebels is encouraging - actually the HTL has encouraged former Assad government officials to remain in place to manage the transition.
The challenges though are huge, given a country riven by 13 years of civil war and militias who have spent as much of that time fighting each other as fighting the Assad regime. The examples of Libya and Iraq - which also thru off brutal authoritarian dictators - are hardly encouraging. As with Libya and Iraq numerous outside actors will have a penchant for intervention, often with a malign intent. Already Israel has launched the largest air strikes on Syria in more than 50 years, seeing instability in Syria as a chance to take strategic advantage, taking out much of Syria’s airforce, air defence and broader military capacity, also capturing yet more land around the Golan Heights as a “buffer”. No doubt this Israeli intervention will prove extended therein, and this will be a source of future tensions - Egypt was quick to criticise this move as riding a tank thru the 1974 Israel - Arab ceasefire deal. Hard to disagree there The land captured includes water supplies flowing to Lebanon. The concern is that Israel will permanently settle this land as part of a Greater Israel agenda, or perhaps move Palestinians out of Gaza or the West Bank into this “buffer” zone.
Iran, while weakened, remains a powerful regional player, both directly and through proxies in Iraq. Both can still act in a malign capacity to destabilise Syria - they have a track record in Lebanon, et al.
The hope though here is that Turkey can play a decisive role in helping manage the transition and guiding the new Syrian administration on a path of moderation, modernisation and reform. Turkey will likely be a conduit for substantial Gulf state finance to fund the reconstruction, alongside funds from Europe. Tens of billions of dollars will be required, but the rewards of a stable Syria are huge for the donors.
In terms of external winners and losers and global impact?
Turkey is clearly the biggest winner. As noted above, Turkey will be a conduit for recovery funds, and many Turkish companies will lead any reconstruction effort - notable that Turkish construction stock rose sharply this week. The return of refugees will help ease the rise of nationalism at home which had begun to weigh on support for Erdogan. Meanwhile, the success of groups in Syria aligned with Turkey, including the HTL, will push back on Syrian Kurdish groups, like the YPG. Turkey has an interest in ensuring a stronger central government in Damascus, and will work therein on state re-building, which will also serve to counter forces of separatism in the country. A weakening of the YPG in Syria, and other pro-Kurdish forces, will weaken Kurdish separatist forces within Turkey, like the PKK, and perhaps force them to the negotiating table for a longer term settlement in Turkey. That is the hope in Ankara at least.
Turkey is now the dominant external force in Syria, perhaps with Israel acting without, and this gives Turkey leverage with other global powers, in particular with Russia, the U.S., and Iran.
Trump has made it clear that he wants to withdraw the 1,000 odd US forces in Syria battling ISIS et al. The demise of Assad, and hopes of a more moderate and reformist government in Damascus, backed by Turkey, will perhaps give the US assurance that it can depart, leaving the battle against extreme Islamists with Turkey and its Gulf state allies. Trump can claim the win of bringing US troops home.
Russia is a very clear loser from the defeat of Assad, and is now battling to cling on to its strategic warm water naval base at Tartus, and the nearby airbase - key to Russia’s influence operations across the region, particularly into Africa. To ensure its security Moscow has had to negotiate through Turkey to the HTL and its allies. Turkey may even have helped with the evacuation of Assad to Moscow - as the Russian transport plane that took him out flew out over Turkish airspace. Turkey also seems to be helping Russia evacuate troops from Syria.
What will Turkey demand from Russia? Perhaps lighter terms for the supply of key energy supplies now at threat from US sanctions. Russian agreement also perhaps over Azeri and Turkish access to Nakhichevan thru the Zangezur corridor and on to Central Asia? Putin now owes Erdogan. He will collect.
And Putin will be pushed further to talk peace now in Ukraine but because of his exposed difficulties in Syria he will go into those talks from a position of weakness - I guess also revealed now by having to rely on North Korean troops to free Russian territory in Kursk. With Iran on the back foot now in its backyard it may be less predisposed to supply drones and munitions to Russia.
Iran is obviously a big loser, as the loss of its ally, Assad in Syria, has further weakened the Axis of Resistance. Next stop Tehran? The Islamic Republic must now be terrified that it might be next either thru an internal revolt, or perhaps a U.S./Israeli attack. It must be thinking thru options - negotiate a climb down on the nuclear issue, escalate through acceslerated enrichment or thru other proxies (Houthis) or perhaps a new round of global terrorism. All options have risks - there are no longer any easy options for Iran.
Many in Lebanon will hope that the defeat of Assad will slow weapons deliveries to Hezbollah forcing the latter organisation to play ball in efforts to elect a President, form a government and push on with economic reform and recovery. There are almost as many moving parts in Lebanon and Syria, and both are very interdependent. Risks of failure in both are still very high.
In terms of global impact - limited so far, albeit obviously the choices made by both Iran and Russia (peace in Ukraine) as a result of events in Syria will have major global impacts. Syria is an oil producer, but at 400,000 barrels a day, relatively modest and thus far the upsurge in fighting In recent weeks had limited impact therein. Indeed, all parties in Syria likely have an interest in keeping the oil, and the $$, flowing.