Trump delivers on Putin’s plan to ensure Ukraine fails

Trump’s peace plan is proceeding at breakneck pace but the problem is that it is Ukraine’s neck that is on the line here.

There is little evidence to suggest that Trump is taking any of Ukraine’s interests into account.

The agenda by Trump seems to be to deliver all of Putin’s demands as Trump seems desperate to normalise US - Russia relations at all costs. Ukraine seems expendable to Trump here. Trump sees Ukraine as his leverage (gift) over Putin.

As is it appears that Trump will try and ensure delivery on all of Putin’s demands including:

* Russia, de facto, keeps all the territory it currently occupies in Ukraine. I think it is also quite likely that Trump will try to deliver, de jure (at least US acknowledgement), Crimea and Donbas to Russia.

* Assurance of no future NATO membership for Ukraine;

* No security guarantees of any significance to be provided by the US, and as a consequence the West, to Ukraine;

* Limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military - to the point that Ukraine is unable to defend itself against future Russian attack;

* Lifting of sanctions on Russia, with pressure also on Europe (against its core interests) to follow suit. Frozen Russian assets are likely to be returned to Russia, and put beyond the use of Ukraine for reconstruction;

* Pressure on Ukraine to hold presidential elections soon after any ceasefire agreement, and likely before a permanent peace deal. As per Ukraine’s constitution, it will need to lift martial law and mobilisation, which will risk large scale out migration and the depletation of Ukraine’s front lines. This is precisely why Putin is demanding such a measure. Likely they will be some debate around inclusion of populations in occupied territory in such elections - to help to sway any vote in favour of pro Russian candidates.

* Little assurance of EU accession - which has been an anchor for economic reform and development across Emerging Europe over the past thirty years. Putin will use his allies in the EU - Orban, Fico, et al - to block this for Ukraine. Remember here that Putin intervened in Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014, not because of its prospective NATO membership (which was never likely back then) but because Ukraine was given an EU accession perspective with the signing of the EU Association and Partnership agreement in 2013. This offered the prospect of providing the anchor and roadmap for Ukraine to become a well functioning economy, and a democracy with the rule of law. And this is what Putin feared, as he saw that as offering his own Russian population with a vision of an alternative future without Putin. That was the big threat, not NATO membership. Rule of law - Trump does not get that.

Following Trump’s pantomime villain performance in the White House with Zelensky the assumption has to be that Trump will put immense pressure on Zelensky to accept the above deal, including perhaps yet again pulling military and intelligence support to Ukraine.

The above deal will be a poison chalice for Zelensky and Ukraine:

First, acceptance of any deal implying the loss of territory, without any security guarantees, would be political suicide for any Ukrainian leader. The question then will be what was the point of three years of war?

If elections are held, likely the result will be a shift to a more hardline, nationalist/militarist style candidate - Zaluzhnyi, et al. Divisions will run deep though in Ukrainian society, strong fissures will appear and the political setting will likely be toxic for years to come. Putin will seek to exploit this by trying to support extreme candidates so as to divide Ukraine from its allies in the West. Putin’s objective will be to try and then capture Ukraine through the political process, or use political weakness/instability as an opportunity for further military intervention in Ukraine.

Second, the economy will struggle to perform without adequate security guarantees. Little Western investment will be forthcoming while the risk of war and further Russian intervention hangs over the country. Trump’s minerals deal is a mirage. Outmigration will accelerate with the end of martial law and mobilisation, while few of the millions of Ukrainians now overseas will return. Labour shortages will persist, causing inflation and a break on growth. Promised Western donor support will be limited - European countries will focus on their own defence needs and budget constraints, and once the fighting in Ukraine stops or fades the urgency of supporting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction will be less of a priority. The economy hence will underperform which will feed back into the doom loop of more outmigration and political instability.

Third, millions of soldiers will return from the front line expecting change, and support via jobs and pensions. A struggling economy will be hard pressed to deliver on these expectations. The risk is of populist policies, with governments running large budget deficits to deliver generous pensions to war heroes. Public finances will deteriorate. All this will further undermine domestic political stability, fuel outmigration and stall recovery and reconstruction.

Fourth, Putin will further exploit all these fissures by going back to his former MO of trying to manipulate Ukraine via entrenched oligarchic vested interests. Corruption will flourish and be exploited by Russian interests to further divisions between Ukraine and Western donors.

The above suggests Ukraine will return to the state captured model of development for which it suffered for the period from independence to 2014 and the Euromaydan. Fractured politics, low growth, inequality, corruption, outmigration and a tendency for periodic revolutions will be the likely outcome.

Essentially Putin wants a failed state scenario for Ukraine, which Trump seems ignorant of and eager to deliver on for him.

The choices and options facing Zelensky will be extremely unpalatable - fighting on against Russia, without US support, or risking a bad peace which could end up with Ukraine as a failed state and then subject to further invasion by Russia or failed state status and then political capture by Russia. He might just opt to take his chances by snubbing Trump and fighting on. The question for Zelensky will be what is in it for Ukraine in a bad peace deal which in any scenario ends up in the loss of its sovereignty to Russia?

What is in this peace for Ukraine?

And Europe will need to ask itself how it would fair if Ukraine ends up as a failed state as a result of a bad peace imposed on it by Trump. Think tens of millions of Ukrainian migrants moving West, plus an unstable militarised Ukraine on its doorstep, with chances it pushes to develop its own nuclear deterrent and then further Russian military intervention. Russia might still end up further invading Ukraine and capturing its now immense military industrial complex. So the security threat from Russia would just multiply as a result of failing to help Ukraine hold the line now.