Trump fails Ukraine peace process
Great listen - from Kofman, et al.
https://x.com/carnegierussia/status/1920059533008994799?s=46&t=32_q5q9ehPzOjr0pU8ggAQ
My take is the war goes on, essentially due to the incompetence of Trump.
I love the line that Biden had no focus on the end state/game but had a team focused on the process. Trump is all focused on the end game (peace at any cost) but has no concept of process.
For me Trump had all the cards, to get a good peace, but blew it as he lacked any interest in the details.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-no-longer-has-the-trump-card?r=ynli4
And the minerals deal is - as Kofman says - a big nothing burger. No investment will come until there is security (and the deal does nothing to address security issues) but at least keeps the Trump administration somewhat engaged with Ukraine, sufficient to keep selling them, and Europe, weapons.
But Trump gave so many concessions to Putin that he thinks if he waits he will see total capitulation from Trump and Ukraine. So now Putin has zero interest in a near term ceasefire deal.
And Trump gave so much away to Putin that Zelensky, and no Ukrainian leader, can ever sign up to the deal put on the table by Trump for risk of another revolution at home.
Well the deal that was signed was very different from the original extortionate proposals and it's not even a "minearl" deal at this point. I think the meeting in the Vatican was the turning point, for what it's worth and Zelensky deserves a lot of credit.