Trump - Making Autocrats Great Again
Trump’s latest deranged post on his social media channel actually suggest weakness and vulnerability from POTUS.
https://x.com/therickwilson/status/1892251092609556545?s=61&t=wYv4c8R2e5qI1ZTyZPsQiw
It’s obvioualy laden heavy with lies, or “alternative facts”,which could so easily come from the Kremlin’s own PR machine.
I think here though that his post suggests that he realises that his peace plan for Ukraine is in serious trouble now, and he is looking to scapegoat Zelensky for that.
Trump clearly knows nothing about Ukraine, and more than likely this will just rally support of Ukrainians behind Zelensky. Indeed, already General Zaluzhnyi, former head of the Ukrainian armed forces and seen as Zelensky’s likely main contender in future elections, came out strongly in support of Zelensky’s position on delaying elections while the country is in a state of martial law. Polls already shows higher ratings for Zelensky.
On the peace plan, as I have argued earlier on this blog, Trump had a strong negotiating position vis a vis Putin as he went into negotiations. Trump could put more pressure on Putin by increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine, increasing sanctions on Russia, while the majority of the funding for Ukraine now comes from Europe, and zero U.S. blood has been lost in Ukraine. The risks to the US are limited from taking a tough line, whereas they were heavily balanced against Russia. Trump further had strong negotiating points with Putin around NATO membership for Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine, sanctions relief, territorial concessions, et al. But over the past few weeks, the Trump team have surrendered most of these negotiating points to Putin with zero concessions in return. Indeed, Putin has gone back to his maximalist conditions, including pushing for early elections in Ukraine - repeated by Trump now. Early elections, after a ceasefire, but before a lasting peace, would have to see the lifting of martial law, as per the Ukrainian constitution, and the danger then would be mass out migration from Ukraine, risking the depletion of the front lines. Putin knows this. Hence why he is pushing it, but Trump, the novice, has fallen for it, hook, line and sinker.
Rookie mistake by Trump.
Trump, the master of the art of the deal, had the winning hand, but like a novice, he has surrendered all his advantage.
Its extraordinary how Trump has gifted wins for Putin across the board.
And not content with that, Trump dispatched his Treasury secretary to Ukraine over the past week with a draft agreement which appeared colonial in its demands for huge U.S. concessions over Ukraine’s mineral and raw material wealth.
Ukrainians will be asking what is in it for them?
Nothing is the obvious answer. Why would they accept Trump and Putin’s terms?
Indeed, rather this will serve to harden support for Zelensky within Ukraine and acceptance that Ukraine has no choice but to fight on.
Trump has screwed up chances of a peace deal - and note there that whoever won the US elections would likely have headed/pushed for peace talks, as both sides (Russia and Ukraine) favoured talks.
Trump might think that starting a war of words with Zelensky will work in his favour. I doubt that, as Zelensky is a proven war hero - staying in Kyiv in February when offered a flight out. Trump risks coming across as a bully, and all that is not helped by the fact that Trump is calling out Zelensky as a dictator which is obviously false. Whereas Trump fails to call out Putin himself as a dictator.
The danger for Trump is that he risks sullying the MAGA logo to one rather of Making Autocrats Great Again. And autocrats there being Putin.