UK elections - take outs
Big picture take outs
Some broad conclusions on UK elections:
First, yes a landslide for Labour, taking 410 seats out of 650, and gaining a huge majority. Labour leader, Starmer, will say this gives him his mandate for CHANGE, but others will point out that a 34% share of the vote is disappointing. That said, much to suggest here that the Labour vote was supressed by the prior expectation of a landslide, and the 20 point poll lead going into the election. Many Labour voters just stayed at home - why bother voting when the result was a slam dunk? A 60% turnout hit labour, perhaps as hard as the Tories. The Labour vote was also hit by the collapse of the loyal Labour Muslim vote on the parties less than convincing policy on Gaza. And true, Starmer’s uber safe campaign failed to inspire.
Second, Labour now faces an incredibly difficult job to turn around the UK plc, as little works in the UK after 14 years of chaotic and largely failed Tory rule. The economy is in a dire state, public services are in a desperate state, housing is in crisis, as are transport, energy, education, and defence, add in utilities (water) plus immigration policy. It makes for grim reading, and with public debt at record highs, there is simply no money left to address all these problems. Starmer will hope for a feel good factor around the UK’s return to some kind of normality and Europe move the other way to spur inward investment and a feel good factor to lift growth.
Third, the Tories probably did slightly better than prior polls, with a 24% share, but the collapse of their vote is still extraordinary and I would argue reflects a combination of recogition of their incompetence in government, but also a rejection of their increasingly hard right policies. The party will now engage in a brutal blood letting and the party has a choice of either go back to the centre, or move even further right to meet Reform.
Fourth, actually I think the election still sent a message that to win an election in the UK you have to take the centre ground. I know the headlines are being written about Reform, and the fact they came from nowhere to take 14%. But they only secured four seats due to the quirks of the UK first past the post system. Important still here that adding the Labour, Green, Liberal and Scots/Plyaid, votes, that in the UK 60% plus of the electorate still vote centre, or certainly not extreme right. The Tories plus Reform might have secured 38% of the vote, but if they unite at the next election I would still expect tactical voting by the 60% to keep them out of office. Thats the choice for the Tories, if post election they move right to unify with Reform, I think they also lose the next election.
Fifth, Brexit was nowhere in the election debate, aside from Reform who were whinging that they failed to get the Brexit that they wanted. Actually the Brexiteers had no clue what they wanted from Brexit or what it would entail, and that’s why we ended up with the Brexit catastrophe. But opinion polls now show 60% plus of Brits understand Brexit was a failure, and likely want to work to improve the relationship with Europe. UK rejoining? Labour have ruled it out in this parliament, and I guess they have so many other problems to revolve first, while Europe itself seems to be moving right and away from the UK. Maybe Europe is not a great place to be at this point in time, but I think Europe would now benefit, more than ever, from British moderation as reflected in these election results. We would be a stabilising force for Europe at an absolutely critical time. Farage and Putin got their wishes therein.
Sixth, Scots independence has been set back by the collapse of the SNP and Labour’s return in
Scotland. The SNP’s dismal election performance reflects its own incompetence in government - and I guess the message from England and
Scotland is that nationalists (Tories and the SNP) have not proven very effective in government. I guess with Scot’s’ independence on the back foot again that will help unify the UK a bit more and is one less headache for Starmer.
Finally on Ukraine, something dear to my heart, I expect no change in UK policy, as Labour is very much in line with the prior Tory government policy. Notable here that the UK population is still staunchly pro Ukrainian - notable that Farage’s comments that NATO was responsible for Russia’s invasion went down very badly in the campaign. A challenge though will be the strength of the economy and its ability to sustain the 2% of GDP defence spending commitment, and going further above that as needed. Anyone want to buy two nearly new aircraft carriers? One careful owner.