UK - US national security interests are at risk of diverging

UK, and other Western, intelligence watchers must be nervous around recent Trump defence and intelligence/security service hires. There seems to be widespread disbelief and unease (shock even) from non U.S. Western defence, foreign affairs, intelligence types around the prospect of working with the likes of Hegseth, Gabbard and Patel, amongst others, and indeed the loyalty to MAGA/kiss the ring clearout of key agencies, like the CIA and FBI. How is all this going to make the Western world safer - the Five Eyes might be about to shrink - much to the elation of its foes.

With Trump’s extraordinary interventions recently on Greenland, Gaza, et al, and reports in the UK media of Trump’s Best Bro Musk’s agenda of bringing down the government of Kier Starmer, I mulled over how US national security priorities are beginning to diverge from those of the UK, and wondering how these will be squared with the new Trump administration.

If I could rank current UK national security threats/ priorities, I would have:

1. Elon Musk (Trump?) - threat to elected UK government

2. Growth, and strengthening the economy (Trump tariffs?)

3. Countering far right extremism

4. Migration

5. Defence of global democracy (Trump?)

6. Russia threat & supporting Ukraine/European security (Trump?)

7. Countering Islamic extremism - Middle East/Iran (Trump?)

8. Climate change/Energy security

9. China

10.Health security - post Covid

Others can debate this list. The surprise is probably having Musk at the top of the list but I cannot think of a greater threat to the country than someone having an agenda to remove the democratically elected government and leadership of the UK. And the thing is via Musk’s control of social media platforms and his incredible wealth - he could deploy these resources to short Stirling or gilts - he has the means to destabilise the UK.

China is relatively low on the list as the UK has no false pretences about its place in the world - it is the US fighting with China for global hegemony, not the UK. China, meanwhile, is not plotting to bring down the democratically elected government of the UK, or Western governments, as it likes interacting with the established Western liberal democratic order who have historically supported globalisation, free trade and multilateriam, i.e. cornerstones of China’s recent economic accent.

Note when I go down the UK list, I include doubts about Trump’s position across the list, and the sense that Trump is not a positive influence in terms of supporting UK national security interests, indeed, rather acting against them.

For the US doing the same exercise I would rank it’s threats as set by Trump in the following order:

1. Battle with China for global hegemony

2. Migrants

3. MAGA econ agenda

4. Fentanyl

5. Defence of Israel

6. Iran

7. Countering left wing extremism

8 Energy security - low gas prices at the pump

9. Countering Islamic extremism - Middle East

10. Nuclear non proliferation - N Korea

Note the contrast with the UK, with China top of the list for the US, but towards the bottom for the UK.

Both care about political extremism but the UK and US view the threats as coming from opposite directions. For Trump is it the left, woke/DEI agenda. For the UK (and the Starmer government in particular), it is the far right, populism and actually MAGA style politics.

Migration is a much bigger item in the agenda for the US, while the UK would see countering illegal migration as a counter to the rise of the far right.

Fentanyl/drugs would not really figure in the UK top ten of security risks, but it ranks highly for Trump I guess given the health/social crisis.

Climate change/energy security is importantly for UK governments but for Trump climate change does not register, while energy security is part and parcel of the MAGA economy agenda.

For the UK, Middle East security is seen thru the prism of countering Islamic extremism/Terrorism. Where for the US, under Trump, the defence of Israel perhaps ranks higher and Iran is similarly high up on the agenda but that dovetails more into the defence of Israel. For the Trump administration I think they view ensuring the security of Israel and as a result countering the threat from Iran as then being key to delivering Middle East security. The UK, as with its European allies, would view all this in a more holistic approach to Middle East security, Iran, Israel but then all seen thru the prism of countering the Islamic terrorist threat on the streets of the UK, and Europe, and connected to countering the rise of the far right in Europe.

The whole defence of democracy, European security, support for Ukraine and counter to the Russian risk are pretty central threats/themes for UK national security interests, and all tend to be interlinked. The new angle here is concern that the Trump administration, and decent to a more authoritarian/Kleptocratic vent in the US, could just make this whole space much more difficult for the UK, and undermine our own efforts in this sphere. Are we any longer on the same page as the US?

A cursory review of the above would suggest that the UK’s national security priorities now diverge quite starkly from those of the US. The UK’s national security priorities likely dovetail still quite closely with our European allies, but for both I think questions will be asked as to how we can manage through the so-called “Special relationship”. As ever with these things there will be attempts to focus in the areas of shared threats, while also seeking to try and better communicate to the US, UK and European security priorities, in the hope of shaping/changing US priorities. On China, the UK/Europe might better communicate that they see China as a lower level risk, but that if the US wants support from its allies then it needs to deliver better on our priorities - Russia/Ukriane would be the obvious one therein. Failure of the US to respond favourably could then see the UK/Europe making its own decisions on China - perhaps looking to smooth/ease/improve the relationship. If the US is not responsive to UK/European interests than perhaps we should look elsewhere for partners - China, Turkey, the Gulf, et al. And irrespective of all that the Trump presidency just underscores that the U.K. and Europe need to increase spending on their own defence and security to better insulate themselves from the whims of a U.S. president.