Ukraine - don’t hold your breath on peace talks

Putin played hard to get, and in the end he got exactly what he wanted, which was a bilateral “Great Power” summit with Trump.

Putin will surely hope that at that summit the two leaders can divide the world - Ukraine for Putin, Greenland, et al for Trump.

Yalta II - Putin might even have suggested that, but likely it will be across the

Black Sea in Istanbul, as Türkiye is one of the few states now trusted by all three sides. The UAE is also a possible “neutral” venue mentioned as a possible site for talks.

In Ukraine Putin is showing no willingness to bring the war to an early end. Putin sees weakness from the Trump administration, and division in Europe, and assumes that in a long war the Russian military industrial complex will inevitably triumph over that of Ukraine, and Europe.

Trump came in to office with all the cards over Putin - he could have increased sanctions on Russia, increased military support to Ukraine, and had stuff to negotiate over including NATO membership for Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine, and territory. In the end Trump gave almost everything to Putin - no NATO, no security guarantees for Ukraine, de jure recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and Russia keeps (de facto) all the territory it currently occupies. Trump even began to limit arms supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Putin could not believe his luck, saw weakness and thought he could get everything he wanted on Ukraine by extended the war, which is Ukraine, hook line and sinker, the total control/dominance over Ukraine. So Putin thought Trump, and Europe, would eventually tire with Ukraine and he would get everything he wants. Hence the long war scenario.

On the front line things have stabilised. Ukraine’s manpower shortages are being fillled to an extent by the use of drones. But both sides are now engaged in a longer term battle for military industrial/tech domination. Who can outproduce the other in drones and long range missiles - tanks, and men count less. Russia is using longer range missile and drone attacks to degrade Ukraine’s military industrial complex. Both sides are awaiting the invent of a war defining technology that can deliver the knock out blow to the other. Neither has this yet, but one could, and we are seeing really rapid technological advance. Europe could step up and outgun/out-tech Russia, but it is still making progress at a glacial pace. Given the long term threat from Russia they should be working overtime to dovetail their military industrial production and military tech innovation with Ukraine, but they are not doing enough. That’s a lack of leadership and strategic perspective.

In the talks Putin will try and play for time, or to convince Trump to browbeat Zelensky into accepting conditions which are not sustainable from a Ukrainian domestic political perspective. Likely that will be accepting territorial concessions without any particular security assurance from the US or the West. Zelensky will face a political tsunami if he goes back to Kyiv having given up territory without any clear cut security assurances in return. Ukraine knows that for the rest of Ukraine to have a future, and to be able to build its economy to produce a credible defence, it needs security, as their will be no investment in Ukraine without security. Therein Trump’s mineral deal with Ukraine is not worth the paper it is written on.

I think both Putin and Zelensky will be playing a game to string Trump along, both for different reasons but to buy time. Zelensky want not to be seen to walk away from talks, so as to ensure continued delivery of US military kit. Putin similarly not to be seen to walk away from talks so as not to risk being crippled by additional US sanctions.

Putin will I think hope that Trump’s lack of understanding of the core issues in the Ukraine conflict - he just sees it as a business/real estate venture - and his lack of attention on the detail might give him an advantage, by manipulating Trump, to stitch Zelensky up.

The two sides are miles apart in terms of their perspectives: Putin wants the end of

Ukraine as an independent entity, and that’s obviously existential for Zelensky and Ukraine. Hard to see where the compromise is.

Trump wants quick wins, but I fail to see any here. Best case, for Trump, is an agreement on the two sides to talk further, which he will sell as a win, before moving off and on to the next issue to catch his fleeting interest. I do not see any fundamental progress in delivering a lasting peace.