Ukraine is key to Europe’s LT defence

Whether it was the hysterics of Trump, and fears over a looming US isolationism under a Trump 2.0, or the wake up call from Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, but Europe is finally waking up to its own defence and security vulnerabilities.

Mark Rutte, the NATO chief summed all this up quite well this week in calling NATO members to up defence spending well beyond the 2% of GDP current target, to more like 3% of GDP. Even this might not be enough given the existential threat now from Russia.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_231346.htm

Rutte is right, the harsh reality is whatever happens now with Trump 2.0, and likely with a Ukraine peace deal, Russia has revealed itself, not only through the invasion of Ukraine but long before with the intervention in Moldova, invasion of Georgia in 2008, illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion then of Donbas, plus cyberattacks, attacks on critical infrastructure, and interference in Western elections (Brexit, Moldova, Georgia and Romania, et al) as a long term and existential threat to Europe, European norms, values and security.

The Russian threat is not going away with any potential Trump imposed peace deal in Ukraine. Experience shows that Putin will take whatever concessions are offered/made by Trump, re-arm and prep for future aggression, and invasion. Indeed, Russia’s defence minister, Belousev, revealed in recent weeks, that hikes in Russian defence spending are preparation for expected future tensions with NATO. Russia is preparing for a future war, so should Europe.

Europe should wake up to the reality that any bad peace deal imposed on Ukraine (lacking clear security guarantees), which sets the stage for future Russian attacks on Ukraine - militarily, political - asymmetric - and which raises the prospect of Ukraine falling back under the Russian yolk would present a huge and existential threat to Europe. Imagine Russia’s immense military industrial complex added to the now very significant capability of the Ukrainian military industrial complex. The combined military capabilities of Russia with Ukraine would outgun that of Europe - a combined military spend approaching that of the rest of Europe combined but with a battle hardened and military tech savvy machine.

Thinking through the numbers - a 2% of GDP spend on defence for Europe is €400 billion given the €20 trillion European economy (ten times the size of the Russian economy). Increasing the defence spend to 3% of GDP adds an additional €200 billion in defence spending. And increasing the European defence spend to levels seen at the end of the Cold War, in the 1980s at 3.8% of GDP, would add an additional €360 billion in European defence spending, roughly double that of Russia currently.

The above lays bare the glaring cost - benefit win of Europe, and the West, backing Ukraine to win, beat Russia in the current war in Ukraine and downgrade the Russian threat. According to data from the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, the West has spent roughly €100 billion a year in supporting Ukraine following the Russian invasion. This level of spending has not been enough to secure a Ukrainian victory, but just to keep Ukraine in the war. When Ukraine has been on the front foot in the war, Western support has been nearer to €12.5 billion per month or €150 billion annually. This is the level of spend needed by Europe to give hope of allowing Ukraine to push back the Russian threat. The ask is €150 billion a year, perhaps for 1-2 years but to save having to spend perhaps as much as an extra €360 billion per year on its own defence for years to come. It a cost benefit slam dunk for Europe. If only European politicians understood the threat, accepted the short term costs and had the leadership skills to articulate the need for investment in defence to their own populations. European politicians need to be honest with their own populations as to the threat from Putin - Rutte is stating this process, but it is long overdue.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

And the irony in all this, is that the big winner from increased European defence spending, whatever Trump might say, is the US, as it still has the most capable military kit and military industries to supply Europe with the defensive kit it now will need in huge scale. Whatever the outcome of the war in Ukraine, US defence industries will profit immensely from the outcome. Indeed, arguably a cynic would suggest that for the US, a bad peace deal in Ukraine, leaving Europe insecure, will see the biggest demand for US military kit and for years to come.

The big conclusion still for Europe is that the best investment that it can make in its own long term defence is through short term investment in making sure Ukraine is able to defend itself and the rest of Europe. It also should have a huge self interest in making sure any peace deal agreed by Trump et al over the war in Ukraine is sustainable, meaning it leaves Ukraine secure against future attacks. This could be through NATO membership, security guarantees from individual Western states or assurances to Ukraine that it will be supplied with the full spectrum of Western conventional military capability to be able to defend itself as per the State of Israel guarantee.