Ukraine - Silver lining to ambush in Oval Office saloon

The ambush by hired hand JD Vance (more like Calvera than Angel Eyes) at the not so Ok coral WH Oval Office at high noon on Friday made for great theatre, rather 24H TV. And initially it appeared to be an absolute disaster for President Zelensky and Ukraine - risking perhaps the pulling of US military support for Ukraine and even more hard days ahead then for Ukrainians in their existential battle for survival against Russia. However, after the dust settled on the floor of the Oval Office saloon bar, I can see a few silver linings for Ukraine:

First, as I argued last week, while the minerals deal hardly seemed to be worth the paper it was written on for Ukraine (with zero real commitments of anything be that security or finance from the US), it did give Zelensky the prospect of some “quality” time in the WH. A chance to make the Ukrainian case and, in the worst case, to really figure out where the Trump administration stood - with Russia, or with Ukraine. If the former, Ukraine could plan accordingly, as at least it would be put out of its misery.

As it transpired it was the worst case outcome, and it must have been clear to all by the aggression shown from both Vance and Trump towards Zelensky, that they stand with Russia. Indeed, Trump even repeated his Helsinki summit line that he trusts Putin, and much more than Zelensky or Ukraine.

Ukraine now knows the US does not stand behind it, and will now be better prepared as a result. It will have to adopt other strategies and options.

Second, the position of the US was also revealed to the world. It stands behind Russia and can no longer be viewed as a neutral arbiter in peace talks. Actually the US lost its right to lead those talks.

Prior to the Oval Office showdown Ukraine, and Europe, had largely been sidelined from the peace process which was being driven by the US and Russia. Ukraine, and Europe thereby worried about having to live with an imposed peace which would likely have not been sustainable as a result. But because of the bust up at the WH, Europe was forced to impose itself in the peace process, and take the initiative. The result is any peace is likely to be better for Ukraine, and more lasting and durable - Trump seemed casual about Ukraine’s legitimate security concerns, but now Europe will be able to put them centre stage.

The initiative has been taken from Russia and the US - who had both been working on an agenda against the interests of Ukraine and Europe.

Actually the four point peace plan suggested by the U.K., and the BIFs, Britain, Italy and France, as leading the way, seemed sensible. Arm Ukraine, give it the tools to defend itself, try a one month truce (covering air and seas, which is more easily verifiable) with Russia first, before a full scale ceasefire. Europe made clear that Ukraine need security guarantees, and arms to defend itself.

Third, events in the WH must have been the final wake up call to Europe, that NATO is dead, the US security guarantee for Europe is over, and that they have to step up if they care about their own security. And I think we saw that over the weekend. There is zero excuse now for Europe not to massively step up its defence spending, and build back its hard power. Zero excuses.

European defence spending will step up, but as we all know it faces capacity constraints in military industries, hence a short term reliance on the US is inevitable.

But Europe has leverage, if it ever realised it.

It will increase defence spending but will need to buy off the U.S. in the short term. If it were clever it would try and get ahead of the curve by committing to a long term arms procurement programme from the US. Say $1 trillion over ten years, a deal that even Trump could not say no to. Call it the Trump Defence of Democracy Programme, whatever you need to play to Trump’s enormous ego. Likely Trump could not say not to the jobs, jobs, jobs created in the US. But this would enable Europe to get over the short term gap in defence production, giving it time to reorient its economies and industry.

And longer term, I know there is lots of talk of the Reverse Nixon, a U.S. deal to ally with Russia against China. This seems an absurd long term choice by the US, pushing away a $27 trillion European economy in favour of the $2 trillion Russian economy. Europe will get its defence industries in order over the medium term, and then it will be able to provide the US with an unrivalled scale in terms of helping counter the threat from China in military industry. Imagine Europe spending; 4% of $27 trillion on defence a decade from now, that is $1.1 trillion, half Russian GDP, even going full war economy, Russia cannot bring that to the table for the US against China. But Europe can.

Encouraging also to see Turkiye at the Lancaster summit over the weekend. Türkiye with a 800,000 strong land army is the only power in European NATO which can put tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of troops on the ground in Ukraine. Türkiye also has the manufacturing scale to help bridge Europe’s gaps in military industrial production. But Türkiye wants something in exhange - technology exchange, access to finance and markets - a new Customs Union with the EU, and deeper trading relations with the U.K. These are easily doable - low hanging fruit. Türkiye is no ally of Russia, it is nervous about the prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine and its domination then of the Black Sea and its environs. Europe needs to reach out to Türkiye.

Fourth, the U.K. is back in Europe. The U.K. has, somewhat unwittingly, been thrust into the spotlight in peace talks over the weekend. Sir Keir Starmer “Charmer Starmer” played a blinder over the past weekend, and showed a shrewd ability to talk to the US, Europe and Ukraine. The UK’s first class diplomacy skills have been sadly lacking in Europe, post Brexit, but the UK has now realised that if it wants a secure and safe Europe it has to put skin in the game whether that is boots on the ground or brogues in the conference suite. We are good at it.

Fifth, events in the Oval Office I think will have revealed to the world who are the bullies/Aggressors here and who are the victims. Zelensky stood up for the little guy - imagine after Ukraine has lost hundreds of thousands of dead, injured, raped, kidnapped by Russia to be asked to say thank you to the US. Indeed, as CNN later revealed, Zelensky has already said thank you to the US 94 times in public. What does the US want? All fours, kissing the Trump ring? The global south I think will now align with Ukraine.

Sixth, if I were sitting in Beijing, I would be worried about events in D.C. - clear now that the US wants to line up with Russia, against China. I think China needs to be making more friends now in Europe. Europe should reciprocate, show the US that it has other options.