Ukraine - strategy seems to be changing
Is it significant?
Something is definitely changing in respect to the Ukrainian strategy in its war with Russia.
Yes, all the focus has been on the new Ukrainian INVASION of Russia in Kursk.
But, also see here:
https://x.com/censor_net/status/1826639356880453855?s=61&t=wYv4c8R2e5qI1ZTyZPsQiw
And then here:
https://x.com/kromark/status/1826539947878236481?s=61&t=wYv4c8R2e5qI1ZTyZPsQiw
This comes after other major Ukrainian long range strikes against significant Russian military assets in Lipetsk, Murmansk, Moscow, St Petersburg, Krasnodar, Novorossiysk, et al.
The Ukrainians seem to be making good use of the surge in Western resources after
Congress finally signed off on the US$61 billion financing package for Ukraine back in April.
I think here there is a sense of spend it while you have it, and aim to maximise pressure on Putin and show the West that with the resources that Ukraine can win.
Perhaps, and as with Kursk, it is about maximising leverage in the run up to US elections, and possible negotiations with Russia given all the talk about a Trump presidency forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table.
I think the Ukrainians are also testing Putin and also the US red lines.
Putin’s red lines for retaliation - and so far he has not done much in response to the invasion of Kursk. And US red lines around using US kit to launch longer range missile strikes into Russia. My sense is that the US/West is now taking a leaf out of the Putin playbook of plausible deniability, and letting the Ukrainians get away with as much as they can, while they can.
On Putin his failure to really respond that much to the Kursk invasion and the latest long range attacks begs the question a) whether he has the capability, and/or b) whether he is also in two minds now how to play the US election. Is he waiting for a Trump win, and does not want to rock the boat too much before then - an all out Russian attack on military/civilian assets might risk a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine which might even put it even beyond the pale for Trump to sit down and negotiate with Putin. Or perhaps likewise, Putin might be fearful of overly annoying a potential Harris presidency and risking then a Harris presidency doubling down on support for Ukraine. We are seeing indecision from Putin - weird that he took a tourist trip to Chechnya this week to see his Tesla Truck driving warlord buddy Kadyrov.
I wonder here a little whether the Biden/Harris team have given the Ukrainians the nod to push on with these long range attacks, even the attack in Kursk, with the idea that if the war seems to be going back in Ukraine’s favour then that is a win for Biden and Harris - it begins to justify the bankrolling of the war.
I might add in here on the latter a big ramp up in economic pressure now on Russia with Western treasury officials reading the riot act to third countries like Turkey, the UAE and China about allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions. The sanctioning of MOEX also earlier in the summer seems to be making it difficult for third country entities to transact with Russia - there is all but panic in Russian circles and note there new record lows for the rouble. It seems like we are seeing a combination here of heaping up the economic pressure, the Kursk incursion and now a step up in long range missile attacks.
The momentum has swung back and forth over the past two and half years many times, and at this point in time, Ukraine is back on the front foot.
Putin seems to be feeling the pressure - see therein the piece by Alex Motyl, and which might explain Putin’s weird trip to Chechnya this week at the height of the crisis in Kursk.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4839613-another-russian-mercenary-leader-has-turned-against-putin/