Ukraine - plan for the worst case scenario

Talking to Ukrainians in the run up the US election there was some nervousness around the prospect of a Trump presidency but a sense of hope still that at least with Trump they would learn their fate sooner. There was a sense here that under Biden, the drip, drip feed of support was a recipe for a certain slow death. Under Trump there was an expectation of a radical shake up of policy and, perhaps, by throwing all the cards on the floor they might just fall for Ukraine. There was also some logic in taking a more constructive view of a Trump presidency - that he would hold all the cards in any negotiation with Putin, and surely Trump would want to use them to deliver a deal that might just be half decent for Ukraine. The feeling was surely that Trump would not want to deliver a second Afghanistan style debacle for which he would surely get the blame.

Just a few months into the Trump presidency and the awful truth has surely been revealed now about Trump. That he is firmly in the Putin camp.

Therein first he seemed to throw away all the ace cards he held in potential negotiations with Putin - no NATO for Ukraine, no security guarantees, Putin keeps all the territory he holds, sanctions moderation. We then had the - well extortionate - minerals deal that the Trump administration held over Ukraine as the price of any support for Ukraine. Then the disastrous WH ambush of Zelensky by Vance and Tump - when Zelensky had the audacity to ask for something in exchange for the minerals deal, that is some clarification on the topic of its own security. What was clear from the WH reaction in the Oval Office, and then subsequently from the Trump team, is the hatred of Zelensky and Ukraine. Subsequently we have had the pulling of US support for Ukraine, including arms deliveries, then intelligence and now even talk of kicking Ukrainian refugees out of the US.

It should be clear now that the Trump administration has decided that its priority is normalising relations with Russia, at all cost - be that at the cost of Ukraine, or NATO. Both are expendable from the Trump perspective.

So desperate is the Trump administration to normalise relations with Moscow that they are willing to give Putin everything, and more, that he desires on Ukraine and indeed, NATO. And from the Trump team perspective that means Ukraine has to accept all Putin’s conditions. So no NATO for Ukraine, Russia keeps all the territory it currently controls, plus what is left of Donbas, Zaporizhiya and Kherson, likely limits on Ukraine’s military capability, plus de-Nazification of Ukraine, which for Russia means a change of leadership in Kyiv and its replacement by a Moscow friendly leader - Yanukovych returning?

And if Ukraine fails to agree?

Well, the US has made it clear with its pulling of military supplies and intelligence, that Trump et al is happy for Ukraine to lose the war, collapse to Russia, in effect. And if that happens, Trump will blame Zelensky, Europe, et al. He does not care much about the detail.

And if Zelensky refuses to go along?

Well the Politico article this week also suggested that the Trump administration is busy looking for Ukrainian opposition leaders to fill the void left by the ousting (by Russia and the US) ofZelensky. The Trump administration is in effect planning a coup against Zelensky - the irony that Vance et al always bring up the Nuland story during Euromaydan.

And even on NATO, the Trump administration seems to have few cares, happy to gut confidence in the institution to win favours with Putin. This seems all part of the Trump surrender to Putin - give him both Ukraine and cripple NATO.

All pretty despicable. But a huge win for Putin - and, remarkably, from a position of weakness.

Ukraine, and Europe, are in unenviable positions. I think they would love to tell Trump where to get off - in more fruitful language. But years of underinvestment in defence by Europe, still leaves it reliant on US support/kit, while still struggling to face down the threat from Russia. Europe needs to buy time to be able to boost its on defence, but in the short term this means trying to be as nice as possible to the Trump administration or risk a total rupture with the US and then face the risk of facing off against Russia under armed, and vulnerable. Europe also needs Ukraine to hold the line as long as possible as its front line and ultimately best defence against Russia. So for Europe it is about trying to keep the US sweet, while also arming and backing

Ukraine, mindful that the Trump administration wants to pull the carpet from under Ukraine’s defence and end the war as soon as possible, gifting a win to Putin. Ukraine needs both the US and Europe, but could perhaps hold out for some time against Russia under its own resources and with European support. Ukraine is I think willing to give the finger to Trump - as Zelensky all but did in the Oval Office showdown - but in respect, and in need of European support, is forced to try and be nice to the Trump administration whilst also knowing now it is trying to screw Ukraine.

It’s a really delicate balancing act for Europe, and Ukraine, with the US. For both it’s about trying to buy time, and trying to avoid the inevitable permanent break with the US.

Explaining Trump’s position, I think he is in awe of Putin, wants to be liked and respected by Putin, and hence is willing to give Putin a win in Ukraine and on NATO. MAGA guys like Tucker Carlson and Bannon et al probably see things in term of shifting tectonic plates, in terms of a new alliance with Russia against China. But for Trump, I think it is simply a desire to be liked/respected by Putin - not understanding that Putin respects no one, aside from power, and Trump’s fawning over him will be greeted by scorn in the Kremlin. Putin will take everything Trump gives, and demand more as he sees weakness in Trump to be exploited. Trump the fool.

Ukraine I think does have some agency here though. Trump wants a speedy deal to sell to his MAGA base - after all he bragged that he could bring peace in Ukraine in 24 hours. Already it is not working that way. Ukraine’s leverage is holding out against a deal, whatever the odds. And what is the point of a deal from a Ukrainian perspective if it means giving everything to

Putin and surrendering its sovereignty? Whats the point then of two revolutions - Orange and Euromaydan, and fighting a brutal three year war against a much more powerful enemy, only now to give all that away to Trump and Putin. I just don’t think Ukraine can or will accept that - as I think was seen in the Oval Office scrap. Note here also that Ukrainians have rallied to Zelensky after his brave fight in the White House. And perhaps what Trump et al don’t realise is that for Ukrainians this is a very fight for their survival against a bully which is intent on committing genocide against Ukrainians, as before with the Holodomyr. Ukrainians have nowhere to go, they have no option but to hold out against Putin and Trump now. The hope perhaps is that they last out long enough for Trump to get bored and to move on to the next target, or victim. Russia too has the problem of taking the victory in Ukraine, seemingly handed to Putin on a plate by Trump. Not so easy in reality given Russia’s own military weakness and its inability as yet to take and hold significant amounts of Ukrainian territory. How can Russia take and hold Ukraine against an entrenched, motivated insurgency? Not that easy in practice.