Optimism seems to be building over progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks.
The key here for me is that Ukraine has to have the ability to defend itself, or have enough reliance on others that Moscow will not be able to invade again without suffering massive military consequences.
If these peace talks are serious, and an agreement is reached, the upshot is that Ukraine will have won this war. Ukraine stood up to Putin's bullying/war crimes, and fended off and defeated the huge Russian military machine. This would be a defining moment for Ukraine - kind of think of the 6-day war for Israel. It secured its own defence via the bravery of its own people and the extraordinarily incompetent efforts of the aggressor - dreadful tactics, poor kit and troops that simply did not want to fight.
A defining moment where Russia finally lost Ukraine. Putin's shear aggression and brutal pursuit of this war via indiscriminate attacks on civilians - war crimes/genocide, will mean that Russia has lost Ukrainians hearts and minds forever. There will be no way back for Russia in Ukraine. And perhaps even no way back for Putin at home.
Now lets just go back to that essay Putin wrote over the summer and which he distributed to every member of the Russian armed forces - the justification for the war, giving troops a reason (however unjustified) for the invasion. I have never thought that this conflict was about NATO membership, NATO security risks to Russia, or even Crimea and Donbas. That Putin essay suggests that this war was about his desire to stop Ukraine's Western orientation - not just security, but in terms of way of life, system of government, the Western mind set, philosophy of life/government/society. Putin had no respect for Ukrainians as a people, and their right to have a state. And even if Putin gets an agreement on Ukraine's non NATO membership, neutral status, and even some de facto recognition of Crimea and DPR/LPR, he has absolutely lost the rest of Ukraine - and failed to deliver on the goals as set out in that essay.
Actually Putin, through the conduct of this war, will have secured a much worse position for himself, relative to his objectives, and as per the starting point. Ukrainians will absolutely be determined to accelerate their move West, they will be more eager to defend themselves against future Russian aggression, and they will never forget Putin's aggression. Never. No way back with Putin's Russia.
In the meantime, Russia's economic position will be massively undermined - sanctions will be slow to be removed as the West will now see Putin as the threat/enemy and as little more than a war criminal. Western companies will be reluctant to return due to the ESG issues. Russian financial markets are collapsed, the currency devalued, sovereign debt on the brink of default, inflation higher, financing options limited but borrowing costs higher, and investment lower. Capital flight will continue. The brain drain will accelerate as living standards and job opportunities will be eroded. Recession will be the out-turn this year, and stagnation on the growth front thereafter. Russia's economic decline will match its morale decline under Putin.
Russia will remain largely a pariah state - think of North Korea.
So a peace deal now means Ukraine wins, and Russia suffers a devastating loss. Let's see if Putin can sell that at home - the propaganda and repression machine will surely work over time. But time will weigh on Putin for his disastrous decision to invade Ukraine. I think Russians will reach the right eventual conclusions and Putin will eventually be held to account. Let's hope that is much sooner, than later.
All the above though still makes me worry whether Putin is serious in the conduct of the current peace talks. Surely a peace deal now is a total disaster for Russia and for him - see above? I do worry here that he is just going thru the motions of talking peace and he will still want to escalation further from here - with his logic being, sure I might have lost Ukraine, but if I cannot have it, I will devastate Ukraine to such an extent that you will not want it anyway. That is the Syria option.
Excellent conclusion Tim, I would add that the best way to regain the Donbas and Crimea will be through a prosperous Open Society, celebrating the diversity that Ukraine represents and autocratic regimes suppress by assassination. Ukraine would be the mirror of a "Russian Open Society", no need for Russian Liberals to look at the US, France or Germany, just look at Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!