People asking me whether we could all be surprised by a speedy resolution of the war in Ukraine - I guess therein focus on Putin’s “peace” offer around Crimea/DPR/LPR recognition/no block status line.
I actually think this is unlikely, and generally I am getting more, not less, concerned. Indeed, I am in the camp of thinking that this is going to be seen as a globally systemic event. Game changer/shock to the system, think here the 1970s energy price shock, or akin to Covid.
On the war itself, hard to see an easy or speedy solution.
In wars there are three scenarios to end conflict: a) A clear winner and a loser; b) both sides basically slug it out until they both realise they cannot win – stalemate, leading to peace making. Think Iran-Iraq war – albeit it went on for close to a decade, c) External intervention.
On a) I just don’t see either side as yet reaching the point that they can declare victory. Russia has high level military superiority, think planes, artillery and missiles. But it lacks the man power to put enough troops on the ground to deliver Putin’s war aims – De-nazification (which is a joke, Ukraine is not a Nazi state, and think here that Putin might find he is looking in a mirror) which means regime change in Kyiv and de-militarisation of Ukraine. He has to take cities, Kyiv, et al to bring regime change. And Russian troops have proved unwilling to fight, street to street, against a motivated opposition. And the Ukrainians have not rolled over, they are fighting like hell, they are motivated, they are fighting for their land, for a righteous cause. Putin has unified the Ukrainian nation, again (looks like 95%+ support for the war effort, zero opposition). They seem willing to take casualties, the line being its not worth living if it means surrendering to Putin – remember Stalin killed 3.5 million in the 1930s, and many more later died in WW2 at the hands of the Soviets and Nazis. And I have seen zero debate/interest in agreeing peace on Putin’s terms – recognition of Crimea, DPR/LPR and demilitarisation. Just not going to happen unless Putin massively steps up attacks.
And on Crimea/DPR/LPR recognition as solutions – no Ukrainian president will/can accept these, and I see no local talk about accepting these terms, even though you could argue it is de facto the recognition. Ukraine will not accept these as they realise these are just Trojan Horses for Putin, for Putin it was never about Donbas, or Crimea, it was about Ukraine. He does not accept Ukraine as a nation, as a state, it is about the survival of the Ukrainian nation. This is what it is for Ukrainians – its not about NATO or EU membership, but about Ukraine’s right to decide. Their very freedom. And if Zelensky accepted recognition of Crimea, DPR/LPR there would be a national uprising against him, he cannot get the nation to follow him. The nation would split, and there would be a civil war from within, which is obviously what Putin wants.
Any one who says recognition of Crimea, DPR/LPR as a solution fundamentally does not understand Ukraine. Sorry, fact.
b) See above, the Ukrainians don’t seem anywhere close to surrendering. And Putin does not seem willing to concede defeat here, as this would be a huge blow for him – he did all this to get massive sanctions, screwed the economy and Russians, thousands of casualties, to push Ukrainians further away. Withdrawal now, would see him have serious problems at home.
So sense here Putin likely still sees escalation as the only solution – and I expect there he will try and do something to warn the West to stop arming Ukraine, as the only way Putin can win is if the Ukrainians run out of ammo, and those anti- aircraft and anti-tank weapons.
I worry now of a Russian attack (cyber, kinetic, et al) on Poland or the Baltics, or of him threatening as much, or of him using a tactical battlefield nuclear weapon. He is desperate, and angry.
c) Who is going to intervene? China has no leverage with Ukraine, not seen as peacemaker. NATO is trying to hold off from enforcing no fly zones. But obviously the supply of MIGs from Poland et al, will be a new red line for Putin.
Perhaps if Russia attacks Poland/Baltics, this will escalate things whereby someone will be forced to bring everyone to the table. The first derivative though is escalation – thru Article 5, bringing NATO right to the brink of war.
So this gets worse, before better, unless Putin is forced from power. And guys, the problem is not Russia, but Putin. That’s the fact. Its not really about NATO membership, EU membership, but Ukraine’s very freedom. And remember here that Ukrainians revolted twice already against authoritarian regimes – Orange Revolution and Euromaydan – so showed already that they will not be rolled over by Putin. For Putin to quell the Ukrainians we would need to do a 1930s/40s style genocide, to “cleanse” the freedom narrative from Ukraine. Ukrainians realise/fear that and that is why they are fighting.
On the global systemic risk.
Look this is the biggest security crisis since WW2. It fundamentally changes the way the West thinks about its security, and the number one risk is Russia. This means a massive pick up in defence spending, but a willingness to confront Russia – a willingness to impose sanctions which impose huge costs on Russia, but have global backdraft. This is about a clash of civilisations, of systems, our system of Western Liberal Market Democracy versus Authoritarianism. So we are going to see an extended period of elevated commodity price pressure – sanctions in energy, et al, and Russian countermeasures. This means a big global supply side shock, and as per Covid supply chain disruptions.
Thanks Timothy. Very well written. Your articles are clear and concise 👍