War in Ukraine - China stepping in?

A good thread from Mike Kofman, attached:

Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael

A few thoughts on the Russian winter offensive, which began 3+ weeks ago, and has so far yielded little progress for RU forces. Poor force quality, loss of junior officers, ammunition, and equipment constraints limit Russian offensive potential. Thread. 1/

And then me on Irish radio:

https://www.rte.ie/radio/podcasts/22214685-russian-sanctions/

From Kofman, and also various Western intelligence sources, it seems as though this big Russian offensive is struggling. It is on-going but mostly focused in Donbas, around Bakhmut and four other axes of attack. The Russians have threatened to attack again from Belarus in the north - but I think this is just bull. If Russian and Belarus troops came in from the north I am sure the Belarus troops would just mutiny risking the collapse of the entire offensive and potentially the collapse of the Lukashenko regime in the process. That’s just a feint to get Ukraine to split its forces north, weakening its forces East and South.

Most likely we are watching the Ukrainians taking the punches again in Donbas, trying to deplete Russian forces, waiting for an opportunity to punch thru the Russian land corridor in the south thru Zaporizhiya in the spring. 

Seems like that is Kofman's view again. 

My views have not changed, Russian cannot win this war militarily and more likely is still a Ukraine win thru this spring counteroffensive. 

But, the most interesting development this weekend was a) talk of a Chinese peace plan, after hints of such by the Chinese foreign minister visiting the Munich security conference. b) Blinken warning that China was about to step up arms supplies to Russia. 

I think all this is linked. Russia is losing the war in Ukraine - China does not want Russia to suffer a crushing defeat in Ukraine, which could threaten political stability in Russia itself and thereby weakening the use of its own security pact with Moscow. And the offer of peace talks is basically China now saying “stop, or else we arm Russia”. Likely this much was communicated to Blinken in Munich by the Chinese. This is meant to get the US and Ukraine to peace talks. 

Not sure the US or Ukraine will listen here when the prospect of a Ukraine win in a spring offensive is still on the cards. And even if the US began to pull back military aid to Ukraine to push Kyiv to the table, I am not sure Ukraine would listen. Whether Ukraine gets Western arms supplies or not, I sense the determination to fight on. What have they got to lose? It's their land and now a defence against genocide - the State of Israel moment for Ukraine.

Really notable here though for me is that so far China has been a bystander in this conflict - rabbit in the headlights - with no real strategy or approach, and just hoping it all goes away. But I think now China actually realises that Russia could suffer a devastating defeat in Ukraine on a scale that could threaten the future of the Putin regime. China is now thinking what this war means for the stability of Russia itself - it worries now of regime change in Russia and the risk of a pro Western govt appearing in Moscow which would then leave China isolated in the international stage.

So China now wants a peace in Ukraine and is finally beginning to deploy diplomatic assets to try and achieve that. 

I hate giving Macron any credit for anything related to Ukraine but maybe his comments also at the MSC about Russia being defeated in Ukraine but not crushed was said with an eye on the risk now of Chinese intervention more firmly on the side of Russia.