What does Putin want from Alaska summit?
So what does Putin want from negotiations in Alaska, what has he achieved so far and what more can he expect from Trump?
End Russia’s international isolation. Tick - Trump gifted Putin this with nothing in return. A Putin win.
Reaffirm Russia’s great power status with a Yalta 2 type sit down with the U.S. and by so doing undermine the status and importance of Ukraine and Europe. Tick - Trump gifted this to Putin with nothing in return. A Putin win.
Convince Trump that great powers divide up the world and have their own spheres of influence. Putin will pitch that Ukraine is Russian, and Trump can take Greenland, Canada, et al. Trump might just take this idea. A possible Putin win.
Secure sanctions relief by offering Trump economic deals - access to Russia rare earths. Again Trump might just take this but even by agreeing the Alaska summit, Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Russia have been delayed. Tick, already a partial win for Putin.
Get Trump to agree to force Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia. Ideally Putin wants acceptance, de jure, of Russian ownership of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhiya and Kherson. Putin will assume that this will sow such political, economic and social instability and unrest in Ukraine that Russia can exploit this to further intervene to deliver on his greater goal to take the whole of Ukraine. Trump and officials in his administration have already indicated that Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions. So already a partial win, but Trump might still deliver completely to Putin. Partial tick.
Putin will want commitments of no NATO membership for Ukraine - again to give him options to attack and invade again. Already Trump officials have suggested NATO membership is off the cards for Ukraine, delivering a win for Russia with nothing in exchange. A tick for Putin.
Putin will want to ensure Ukraine gets no security guarantees, again to give him the option of future military intervention. And again Trump officials have suggested no U.S. or NATO security backstop for Ukraine again delivering a win for Russia with nothing in exchange. A tick for Putin.
Putin will demand no NATO membership state forces deployed to Ukraine to police any peace. So who will ensure the peace is maintained? Trump seems willing to accept Coalition of the Willing boots on the ground but without US backing the question is how effective these forces will be. Partial tick.
Putin will demand limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military - again to keep Ukraine weak and vulnerable to future Russian invasions. We don’t know Trump’s position on this point.
Putin will demand “democracy” in Ukraine meaning delayed presidential elections are held. Elections were delayed as as per the constitution they cannot be held under martial law, required to ensure mobilisation to keep front lines manned. Putin knows elections will require an end to martial law and mobilisation which might provide Russia with an opportunity to launch further offensives as Ukrainian front lines depopulate.
Weaken and divide NATO - split the U.S. from its European allies. A possibility depending on how Trump responds to the above.
Trump has already delivered much to Putin, but he can deliver much more.
For both men, Alaska was mainly a photo op for home consumption. Putin has not changed his list of wacko demands and Trump frankly doesn't give a damn about any of it. He only cares about what's in it for him personally.
can you lead a campaign for NATO to chuck out the US and replace with UKRAINE-?-surely the latter is more useful and far more likely to aid any European country close to ruzzian border, should the cancerous putin regime engage in more aggression.? and chuck out Hungary and the Fico guy at the same time. Cannot see how the US if of any use with this admin in charge