What happens if Putin wins?

Spot on from the Economist.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/04/11/what-happens-if-ukraine-loses

This is exactly what I have been thinking/contemplating in recent days.

This seemed incomprehensible only a few months ago but Western incompetence has ensured that it is now quite possible to imagine a Ukrainian defeat/collapse just because the Ukrainians run out of bullets/missiles whatever. 

And this would be ours/the West’s fault.

When I think of the Western policy makers making the decisions it’s kind of the same people who misread Putin for the past decade or more. They failed back then and are failing now.

In helping Ukraine fight this war they have always been more worried about a Russian defeat than strategising for a Ukrainian victory. 

It’s always been drip feeding Ukraine with what it needs to just about survive, not win. Grudgingly giving Ukraine javelins, stingers, T72s, MIGs, HIMARS, Leopards, F16s. But always too little too late.

I see that now with the debate about using frozen Russian assets. If we want Ukraine to win then there is no alternative but to give Ukraine the whole nine yards - or $330 billion. At the moment we are not financing Ukraine to win or even defend itself. The G7/IMF numbers do not add up. And bond holders agreeing any debt restructuring will do no favours to Ukraine by signing off on this - they will just further the lie that the West’s current funding strategy adds up in a Trump world. It does not. The reserve currency et al arguments are just bull/excuses to short change Ukraine.

The consequences for me of a Russian win are devastating for Europe, for the euro and for long term peace and stability in Europe.

It means:

* Huge out migration from Ukraine - tens of millions moving West. This will strain the socio-economic fabric of Europe. It will bolster nationalism, populism and yes fascism in Europe. And that is exactly what Putin wants - the total defeat of Western liberal market democracy. As Putin has captured the GOP in the U.S. he will roll thru Europe by signing up the likes of Orban, Fico, Le Pen, Wilders, Afd, Reform Party in the U.K. et al.

* What will be left of Ukraine? Rump Ukraine, if Putin does not take it all could be a failed state, but one which is also the best armed in Europe. It will project instability and Putin will use that to complete his reconquest.

* The risk is Orban in Hungary will take advantage of a failing Ukraine to take Transcarpathia and further a Greater Hungary agenda which could risk wars later with Serbia, Romania, Slovakia et al - anywhere there is a Hungarian diaspora. Maybe this was the Putin - Orban game plan all along. Wars in Europe will make the Balkan wars of the 90s look like a kindergarten party.

* Putin will not stop in Ukraine - he will use NATO’s weakness to drive into the Baltics and threaten Poland et al. Likely he will look to re-extend control over Transcaucasia and Central Asia. He will annex northern Kazakhstan.

* NATO/European defence spending will spiral. Add an extra 1-2% of GDP. That could be an extra $100-200 billion in defence spending in Europe.

* The euro will collapse because of security risks, wars in Europe and increased defence spending.

Meanwhile, European politicians are too focused on listening to Western business interests who long took Putin’s forty pieces of silver, and bowing to lobbying from entities such as Euroclear. Remember on the latter the CBR was a client of Euroclear until the assets were immobilised, long after the annexation of Crimea, and the Russian invasion of Donbas in 2014.

Why do we listen to such entities?

This is about core NATO/European national security interests.

This is a crisis now for Europe. Putin is an existential threat to NATO, the EU and Europe and Western Liberal Market Democracy more generally. He is a threat to us and our very way of life. Scholz, Lagarde et al need to wake up.