What is Zelensky’s strategy now?

My sense is that both Zelensky and his Ukrainian negotiating team have already concluded that the peace deal that Trump is trying to force thru simply cannot be sold at home.

The Trump deal seems to envisage that Ukraine accepts the loss of Crimea, and other occupied territory, with no security assurances in exchange. Indeed, Ukraine has to give up on its NATO accession bid. Given Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is enshrined it is constitution, I think it is impossible to imagine Zelensky being able to secure legislative approval for any such change. Zelensky knows that.

For Zelensky it must already be clear that Trump is pulling all the stops out to deliver to Putin’s agenda, as he wants a reset in relations with Russia, and is willing to do everything to ensure that, including giving away concessions for Ukraine.

Trump sees Ukraine as the weak partner in all this - the party to be bullied into a deal which suits Trump and Putin but not Ukraine.

Trump has few cares whether or not this is sellable to the Ukrainian people or if, by signing this deal, political, economic and social stability in Ukraine, and by extension Europe is undermined. This is not his problem, as he is focused on getting any deal, however bad for Ukraine done ASAP, securing plaudits for himself for a short term peace, and perhaps then Nobel peace prize he so craves.

So what is Zelensky’s strategy now?

I think Zelensky knows that Trump will sign a deal with Putin whatever happens in Ukraine, but which brings a normalisation in US - Russia relations.

He also knows that Trump and Putin will blame him (Zelensky), and Ukraine, for any collapse in peace talks. I think we saw that this week with Trump attacking Zelensky for laying out the obvious that Ukraine cannot agree to the legal loss of Crimea. Politically that would be suicide for Zelensky and risk a revolution at home.

So what is Zelensky’s negotiating strategy now?

I think Zelensky is playing for time here. Likely Zelensky understands that Trump will eventually walk away, taking Putin with him. But there is still signficant military resources under the $61 billion U.S. funding package agreed by the prior Biden administration left to dispurse to Ukraine. Likely Zelensky wants to draw down on as much as this facility as possible, and secure the release of as much European financi;g and military support for Ukraine as possible before eventually saying no to Trump. Ideally Zelensky wants to force Putin to walk away from negotiations but given Trump’s fawning love for Putin I think that seems unlikely. Zelensky will also want to have given the Ukrainian military, and military industrial complex as much time as possible to fill gaps left by the US pulling back - on many fronts that will simply not be possible, such as Patriots, HIMARS and ATACMS. But the aim is to build resilience to ensure Ukraine can last out as long as possible in a long war, and hope that time yields new opportunities and advantage to Ukraine - perhaps to US midterms, or sooner, that a long war creates new difficulties for Putin in Russia, think Prigozhin therein. Whatever Trump agrees with Putin, without agreement from Ukraine, Russia lacks the military resources to take advantage via a bigger military assault in Ukraine. In the end this could be a poison chalice for Putin - being gifted a win in Ukraine by Trump, but then being unable to deliver on it because of Putin’s and Russia’s own inadequacies. Time also likely allows Zelensky to ensure that European partners remain allied with Ukraine even in a scenario where the U.S. pulls its support for Ukraine.