Recent weeks have seen some pretty seismic geopolitical developments in the Gulf, which would appear to have huge potential global implications. First we had the Saudi - Iranian reapproachment, brokered by China;Thanks for reading @tashecon blog! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Great thought provoking piece! To answer the question in the title, “Are we really seeing a geopolitical shift in Saudi Arabia”, IMHO, the answer is yes, but within this shift, we are seeing a shift in appeasement from West to East. The Kingdom has always been an authoritarian dictatorship with all of the human rights abuses that come with the label. KSA has also historically had a relationship of mutual appeasement with the US, in which the US turned a blind eye to the ugly side of KSA’s methods of governance, while the KSA permitted the presence of infidels and trade integration with the US (due to a sense of gratitude for protection, and for having created its petrochemical industry (pre-nationalization)). Now, I’m the post Kashoggi era, KSA is appeasing China, but the question is why? Apparently, the Biden fist bump was not enough. You noted the choice of comfort in the dictator/autocratic club over the democracy club, which is certainly a prime motive. I would add trade with China (ie. $90bn vs. $25bn with US) and potential capital investment from China to the list of motives for MBS to switch sides. I wonder when KSA will start ordering military equipment from China...
Saudi has a population of just under 40 million, Iran is more than twice as large. If Iran starts to “catch-up” the evolution of the relationship between the two nations will have reverberations for all of us.
This is in all probability KSA hedging its bets, and at the same time keeping the US on its toes. Opec+ and SCO aside, flow of investment funds from Saudi (esp PIF) point a different picture - they are stll heavily weighted towards the US. From MBS' perspective, US policies are likely to change every 4 years. Throw in increasing ESG demands, an aggressive shift away from fossil fuels, complicated political alliances and the US becames a high-maintenance partner. In comparison, China is (relatively) more stable in its political directions, and an easy to manage alliance for someone inclined to chopping up journos who break rank
Saudi Arabia has always been in the autocracy club, and MBS is just making that completely clear. If the Saudis can convince Iran to give up there pursuit of nuclear technology I think rapprochement with Iran would be great. What is troubling is the Saudis own recent pursuit of nuclear energy technology.
Great thought provoking piece! To answer the question in the title, “Are we really seeing a geopolitical shift in Saudi Arabia”, IMHO, the answer is yes, but within this shift, we are seeing a shift in appeasement from West to East. The Kingdom has always been an authoritarian dictatorship with all of the human rights abuses that come with the label. KSA has also historically had a relationship of mutual appeasement with the US, in which the US turned a blind eye to the ugly side of KSA’s methods of governance, while the KSA permitted the presence of infidels and trade integration with the US (due to a sense of gratitude for protection, and for having created its petrochemical industry (pre-nationalization)). Now, I’m the post Kashoggi era, KSA is appeasing China, but the question is why? Apparently, the Biden fist bump was not enough. You noted the choice of comfort in the dictator/autocratic club over the democracy club, which is certainly a prime motive. I would add trade with China (ie. $90bn vs. $25bn with US) and potential capital investment from China to the list of motives for MBS to switch sides. I wonder when KSA will start ordering military equipment from China...
Thought provoking.
Saudi has a population of just under 40 million, Iran is more than twice as large. If Iran starts to “catch-up” the evolution of the relationship between the two nations will have reverberations for all of us.
This is in all probability KSA hedging its bets, and at the same time keeping the US on its toes. Opec+ and SCO aside, flow of investment funds from Saudi (esp PIF) point a different picture - they are stll heavily weighted towards the US. From MBS' perspective, US policies are likely to change every 4 years. Throw in increasing ESG demands, an aggressive shift away from fossil fuels, complicated political alliances and the US becames a high-maintenance partner. In comparison, China is (relatively) more stable in its political directions, and an easy to manage alliance for someone inclined to chopping up journos who break rank
Saudi Arabia has always been in the autocracy club, and MBS is just making that completely clear. If the Saudis can convince Iran to give up there pursuit of nuclear technology I think rapprochement with Iran would be great. What is troubling is the Saudis own recent pursuit of nuclear energy technology.
Very worrying. And there is no real answer to the issues posed in this post.