Interesting to read China’s 12 point peace plan. It reads a bit like a PR spin for China and effort to make it look good with the global south and little in terms of specifics around hard points to bring solutions and peace. Lots of warm words which say very little and no opportunity to criticise the West missed - but no criticism of Russia, the invader who actually caused all this.
So you are suggesting greater Hungary, Azerbaijan, an independent Kurdish state, the end of Iran in effect, smaller Turkey, …and many other big territorial changes..
Well, I think there was a huge amount of corruption involved in these projects with elites in recipient countries received big payouts to encourage participation. Call them consultancy contracts, whatever.
I think there is some of that. China does not want a defeated Russia, where there is risk of regime change, and the emergence then of a pro Western regime in
Moscow which would leave China encircled. I actually think it’s a remote scenario that if Putin goes the next regime will be liberal, and pro Western. But it does not matter what I think I think it’s what the Chinese believe that counts. The next regime after Putin in my mind will be something like Putin, but not Putin. Another siloviki who will want to re-engage with the West to try and stabilise Russia, but without caving in to the West. More like a Krushchev than a Stalin, which is what Putin is now.
I hear a lot of China's OBOR at market rates etc -- but this was not forced on any country; the latter through their own volition chose these projects. No one stops USA or the West from taking on these loans. Blaming China for the mistake of politicians seems a bit low.
Thanks again Tim for your rational summary points. A quick question - this is likely an outlier but could Chinas real interest in a ceasefire be part of a bigger plan to keep Russia strong enough long enough to build an alliance when China tries to take Taiwan? If Russia loses then it becomes much more difficult for China to succeed against Taiwan. If we have a ceasefire now, Russia can rebuild and attack again in say 5 years, which helps distract the West while China invaded Taiwan. Both parties will have learned their lessons and we already see a major alliance forming between Russia, China, N Korea and Iran. These geopolitical changes are not going away and they seem to be shaping up in the same way leading to WWII.
So you are suggesting greater Hungary, Azerbaijan, an independent Kurdish state, the end of Iran in effect, smaller Turkey, …and many other big territorial changes..
Well, I think there was a huge amount of corruption involved in these projects with elites in recipient countries received big payouts to encourage participation. Call them consultancy contracts, whatever.
I think there is some of that. China does not want a defeated Russia, where there is risk of regime change, and the emergence then of a pro Western regime in
Moscow which would leave China encircled. I actually think it’s a remote scenario that if Putin goes the next regime will be liberal, and pro Western. But it does not matter what I think I think it’s what the Chinese believe that counts. The next regime after Putin in my mind will be something like Putin, but not Putin. Another siloviki who will want to re-engage with the West to try and stabilise Russia, but without caving in to the West. More like a Krushchev than a Stalin, which is what Putin is now.
I hear a lot of China's OBOR at market rates etc -- but this was not forced on any country; the latter through their own volition chose these projects. No one stops USA or the West from taking on these loans. Blaming China for the mistake of politicians seems a bit low.
Thanks again Tim for your rational summary points. A quick question - this is likely an outlier but could Chinas real interest in a ceasefire be part of a bigger plan to keep Russia strong enough long enough to build an alliance when China tries to take Taiwan? If Russia loses then it becomes much more difficult for China to succeed against Taiwan. If we have a ceasefire now, Russia can rebuild and attack again in say 5 years, which helps distract the West while China invaded Taiwan. Both parties will have learned their lessons and we already see a major alliance forming between Russia, China, N Korea and Iran. These geopolitical changes are not going away and they seem to be shaping up in the same way leading to WWII.
Just my thoughts.
Thanks