Unfortunately I find many of the author’s conclusions hopelessly naive at worst, and over-optimistic at best. His claim that the fall of the USSR created “fourteen new and well functioning states” is frankly laughable (Turkmenistan? Tajikistan? Georgia? the list of authoritarian and/or economically/politically precarious nations is much longer than the list of successful ones). That doesn’t bolster confidence in the rest of his assertions.
The point is back in 91’ the IMF et al opposed the demise of the USSR and independence for the 14, because they assumed they would all be failed states. But these states function and are not failed. Russia, if anything, is the failed state at this stage. So fear of new countries emerging with the collapse of the Russian Federation should not necessarily be feared. That’s the point.
Ukraine doesn’t have to win now. Russia has been outed as being damaged goods and any calculation on their strategy has to take account of the possibility of a fifth column from within.
Unfortunately I find many of the author’s conclusions hopelessly naive at worst, and over-optimistic at best. His claim that the fall of the USSR created “fourteen new and well functioning states” is frankly laughable (Turkmenistan? Tajikistan? Georgia? the list of authoritarian and/or economically/politically precarious nations is much longer than the list of successful ones). That doesn’t bolster confidence in the rest of his assertions.
The point is back in 91’ the IMF et al opposed the demise of the USSR and independence for the 14, because they assumed they would all be failed states. But these states function and are not failed. Russia, if anything, is the failed state at this stage. So fear of new countries emerging with the collapse of the Russian Federation should not necessarily be feared. That’s the point.
Ukraine doesn’t have to win now. Russia has been outed as being damaged goods and any calculation on their strategy has to take account of the possibility of a fifth column from within.
Ukraine will never win this war, and you perfectly know it.
On the other hand, Russia has already lost.