The constant excuse for the ruble's rally is that it is manipulated. If so, there would be a massive gap between the onshore and offshore FX markets - like the huge spread between the Lebanese official dollar rate and the street rate. There is no such gap. Actually, right now, the offshore FX market for rubles is trading at a premium to the Central Bank of Russia's official rate! The truth is that rubles are now required for settlement of $150 billion in European gas demand from Russia, and no exchange rate above USD/RUB 40 can support that demand.
Excellent points here Timothy. The ruble is a facade with no real value as outside of Russia it has no value. It think Russia is in for significant pain for a long time
The constant excuse for the ruble's rally is that it is manipulated. If so, there would be a massive gap between the onshore and offshore FX markets - like the huge spread between the Lebanese official dollar rate and the street rate. There is no such gap. Actually, right now, the offshore FX market for rubles is trading at a premium to the Central Bank of Russia's official rate! The truth is that rubles are now required for settlement of $150 billion in European gas demand from Russia, and no exchange rate above USD/RUB 40 can support that demand.
Excellent points here Timothy. The ruble is a facade with no real value as outside of Russia it has no value. It think Russia is in for significant pain for a long time