For obvious reasons all the focus has been on Ukraine but risks seem to be building around its borders - and unsure here whether this is because of Russia. The cynic in me talking here but there is rarely smoke without Russian fire in the region. A quick wrap up here - feedback welcome:
Thanks Tim for this latest article. Obviously lots going on here now with escalations from all sides. I think this should have been expected and we should expect more of it before this war has ended. At the end of the day we are dealing with both a brutal dictator who is now showing his true colours and a country that has acted like an empire for centuries. History shows us that these factors combined usually lead to all out war and either the destruction/capitulation of the offender or defender before a return to normalcy.
On Kazakhstan - Tokayev is also a dictator; I think it's important to remember this. He is not standing up for justice he is simply trying to protect himself. As you clearly stated, if he agrees then it gives Putin claims to Ukraine and Kazakhstan more legitimacy, if he defies Putin, then Putin will simply escalate in Kazakhstan until he cannot escalate any further. I agree, I think this was a set-up for Tokayev. At the end of the day I believe Putin thinks he already controls Kazakhstan, like most other peripheral post Soviet states. He simply prefers to have someone to watch over these states on his behalf. This is is essence what Tokayev does. I think we need to watch this space!
On Georgia - This is a sad situation because clearly the people want to be part of Europe, but like Hungary they have allowed another corrupt, pro Putin government to take power. This along with other events happening around the world including the UK and the US shows clearly how delicate our political systems are. Government should be the agent of the people, not the dictators and we need to be cognisant of that more than ever today. I believe we are at a period in the life cycle where we are at an inflection point. The last time we were here was the Great Depression followed by WW11. If we don't pay attention and take adequate action against these evil forces today, we will be living in a very different world tomorrow. One filled with volatility, aggression, and autocratic states challenging the free and civilised world on a continuous basis, possibly ending with WW111. Georgia needs to get its house in order so that they can come back and re-apply for EU membership. The people deserve it.
On Lithuania - Lithuania have done absolutely nothing wrong. In fact this should have been done earlier. Russia will take the actions they deem necessary to both defend their existence and fulfil their goals of autocratic power, destabilisation, land grabbing etc. regardless. I don't think most people understand dictators like Putin. Mediation and compromise do not work. Compromise with evil simply leads to more evil. The only action that will stop Putin and ultimately China and all other dictators from taking what they want by way of Land grabbing, is to defeat them! History again should have taught us this. If WW111 does happen it will not be because we pushed Putin and Russia too far, it will happen because Putin is evil and because he does not see any other way of winning. I believe Putin has already made the decision, even if subconsciously, to use nuclear. He can use any excuse because he has total disregard for international laws and he has always had a lifelong dream of rebuilding the Russian Empire. Everything to date was just the prelude. If Putin has/does decide to use nuclear it will not be because of sanctions or threats from the West, or even the sinking of several of his ships, it will be because he is losing and that can happen within Ukraine and by Ukraine. It is important to understand this because if we kick the can down the road today with compromise and statements such as "we cannot humiliate Putin", like inflation, it will rear its ugly head much more profoundly in the near future. This war in Ukraine needs to end in Ukraine and it needs to end decisively with Russian defeat. We need to be prepared for escalation and possibly even nuclear war and to show Putin we will not back down and make him understand his very existence will come to a sudden end. This is the only language dictators listen to.
Thanks Tim for this latest article. Obviously lots going on here now with escalations from all sides. I think this should have been expected and we should expect more of it before this war has ended. At the end of the day we are dealing with both a brutal dictator who is now showing his true colours and a country that has acted like an empire for centuries. History shows us that these factors combined usually lead to all out war and either the destruction/capitulation of the offender or defender before a return to normalcy.
On Kazakhstan - Tokayev is also a dictator; I think it's important to remember this. He is not standing up for justice he is simply trying to protect himself. As you clearly stated, if he agrees then it gives Putin claims to Ukraine and Kazakhstan more legitimacy, if he defies Putin, then Putin will simply escalate in Kazakhstan until he cannot escalate any further. I agree, I think this was a set-up for Tokayev. At the end of the day I believe Putin thinks he already controls Kazakhstan, like most other peripheral post Soviet states. He simply prefers to have someone to watch over these states on his behalf. This is is essence what Tokayev does. I think we need to watch this space!
On Georgia - This is a sad situation because clearly the people want to be part of Europe, but like Hungary they have allowed another corrupt, pro Putin government to take power. This along with other events happening around the world including the UK and the US shows clearly how delicate our political systems are. Government should be the agent of the people, not the dictators and we need to be cognisant of that more than ever today. I believe we are at a period in the life cycle where we are at an inflection point. The last time we were here was the Great Depression followed by WW11. If we don't pay attention and take adequate action against these evil forces today, we will be living in a very different world tomorrow. One filled with volatility, aggression, and autocratic states challenging the free and civilised world on a continuous basis, possibly ending with WW111. Georgia needs to get its house in order so that they can come back and re-apply for EU membership. The people deserve it.
On Lithuania - Lithuania have done absolutely nothing wrong. In fact this should have been done earlier. Russia will take the actions they deem necessary to both defend their existence and fulfil their goals of autocratic power, destabilisation, land grabbing etc. regardless. I don't think most people understand dictators like Putin. Mediation and compromise do not work. Compromise with evil simply leads to more evil. The only action that will stop Putin and ultimately China and all other dictators from taking what they want by way of Land grabbing, is to defeat them! History again should have taught us this. If WW111 does happen it will not be because we pushed Putin and Russia too far, it will happen because Putin is evil and because he does not see any other way of winning. I believe Putin has already made the decision, even if subconsciously, to use nuclear. He can use any excuse because he has total disregard for international laws and he has always had a lifelong dream of rebuilding the Russian Empire. Everything to date was just the prelude. If Putin has/does decide to use nuclear it will not be because of sanctions or threats from the West, or even the sinking of several of his ships, it will be because he is losing and that can happen within Ukraine and by Ukraine. It is important to understand this because if we kick the can down the road today with compromise and statements such as "we cannot humiliate Putin", like inflation, it will rear its ugly head much more profoundly in the near future. This war in Ukraine needs to end in Ukraine and it needs to end decisively with Russian defeat. We need to be prepared for escalation and possibly even nuclear war and to show Putin we will not back down and make him understand his very existence will come to a sudden end. This is the only language dictators listen to.
My humble opinion.