Tim, I respectfully disagree with your conclusion.
a. it is a decline in demand that has allowed markets to compensate for lost Russian production
b. we will not know the effect of the price cap until global oil markets trade convincingly above the cap
c. it is a lot more likely that what has worked in imposing costs to the Russians, and therefore reducing their revenues, is the European oil embargo, rather than the G7 price cap. Here an examination of Russian Urals v. Espo differentials reveals a lot.
On the latter point, it is clear to me that amongsst the G7, Europe is disproportionately shouldering the costs of these policies. At least the G7 price cap buys some political cover for European officials.
Tim, I respectfully disagree with your conclusion.
a. it is a decline in demand that has allowed markets to compensate for lost Russian production
b. we will not know the effect of the price cap until global oil markets trade convincingly above the cap
c. it is a lot more likely that what has worked in imposing costs to the Russians, and therefore reducing their revenues, is the European oil embargo, rather than the G7 price cap. Here an examination of Russian Urals v. Espo differentials reveals a lot.
On the latter point, it is clear to me that amongsst the G7, Europe is disproportionately shouldering the costs of these policies. At least the G7 price cap buys some political cover for European officials.