For me these are really now defining elections for Turkey, for Europe and Western security and also for broader EM. For Turkey, these could be the last real elections held under a fully Western liberal democratic system. Turkey is still just about a democracy, despite the erosion of democratic norms (over-concentration of power, erosion of checks and balances, arrest of opposition leaders) and the rule of law over years now by Erdogan. The political system has now been managed over years to the advantage of Erdogan and the ruling AKP – 90% domination of the TV media, new election law, opposition leaders barred from running or in jail – but votes are just about still counted, more or less fairly. Another win for Erdogan and I just don’t see a perspective for any opposition win in the future. Turkey will be a very different country, with no perspective of anything other than the ruling party/family – more Central Asian than European. Notable that over the weekend Erdogan welcomed Azeri leader Aliyev at an election rally and indeed the Azerbaijan model might be the future for Turkey with a very managed political process.
Well balanced article weighing up the pros and cons of the election race. Just perhaps a bit more weight on the steep rise in KK’s oratory and video performances..
Last paragraph is crucial. I agree that some (non-binding) guarantees have been made to him if he loses. The worry is that he is surrounded by “Yes, PM” types who will gaslight him into contesting unless the results are clear (+55% KK victory). I fear walking away or “ceketini alip gitmek” is overoptimism, given comparables with Trump, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu (yes, sample size is small!).
Adding the probabilities of a hung parliament and predicting how viscous of an opposition AKP et al will be (think Soylu, Bahceli), there could be a scenario that sees the opposition edge a contested victory, AKP et al makes it impossible to govern with civil/judicial/other disobedience, resulting in a second run of elections in September alas 2015!
Well balanced article weighing up the pros and cons of the election race. Just perhaps a bit more weight on the steep rise in KK’s oratory and video performances..
What is “EM”?
Last paragraph is crucial. I agree that some (non-binding) guarantees have been made to him if he loses. The worry is that he is surrounded by “Yes, PM” types who will gaslight him into contesting unless the results are clear (+55% KK victory). I fear walking away or “ceketini alip gitmek” is overoptimism, given comparables with Trump, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu (yes, sample size is small!).
Adding the probabilities of a hung parliament and predicting how viscous of an opposition AKP et al will be (think Soylu, Bahceli), there could be a scenario that sees the opposition edge a contested victory, AKP et al makes it impossible to govern with civil/judicial/other disobedience, resulting in a second run of elections in September alas 2015!