The Erdogan - Zelensky meeting in Lviv has brought some optimism that substantive peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could be in the offing. The Turkish side were certainly banging that drum, see The Turks have been on the front foot in trying to push the two sides towards peace, with the Antalya and Istanbul peace talks earlier this year, and the grain deal for which the Turkish side must get some considerable credit. For Erdogan the war in Ukraine just adds to his political problems at home, with elections due by next June, his poll ratings lagging and the war causing a huge hit to the Turkish economy when it is perennially close to a balance of payments crises with a higher food and energy import bill. I worry a bit with the Erdogan administration that they are a little too desperate to push a peace deal, as at Istanbul and Antalya that appeared to be on Russian, not Ukrainian terms. The Ukrainians hence understandly rejected what was on offer back then. There is naïveté in the Turkish approach, but the Ukrainians are not that stupid as to accept anything Putin offers. The Turks should realise that.
If Putin blasts the Zaporhizhia nuclear power plant to bits, by bombing it, what will end up happening isn't going to be a meltdown, because the bombs will disperse the critical mass - it will kill any fission reaction. Radioactive materials may be dispersed across a rather limited area - uranium is a remarkably dense heavy metal, and if there's any plutonium around, that will be troublesome. But there won't be a radioactive mushroom cloud. The chief danger will come if there's spent fuel on site, and the circulation of cooling water stops, and that might cook off a fire. On the other hand, if that stuff gets bombed too, then the resultant fragments may not be large enough to cause a fire...
I don't see any soft landing for Putin. Appears that his ability to continue is eroded by constant materiel losses and sanctions limited production capability. Unclear about supply line disruption deeper into Russia. The US is quite afraid that Ukraine will do what it must to stop fires from the border.
If Putin blasts the Zaporhizhia nuclear power plant to bits, by bombing it, what will end up happening isn't going to be a meltdown, because the bombs will disperse the critical mass - it will kill any fission reaction. Radioactive materials may be dispersed across a rather limited area - uranium is a remarkably dense heavy metal, and if there's any plutonium around, that will be troublesome. But there won't be a radioactive mushroom cloud. The chief danger will come if there's spent fuel on site, and the circulation of cooling water stops, and that might cook off a fire. On the other hand, if that stuff gets bombed too, then the resultant fragments may not be large enough to cause a fire...
I don't see any soft landing for Putin. Appears that his ability to continue is eroded by constant materiel losses and sanctions limited production capability. Unclear about supply line disruption deeper into Russia. The US is quite afraid that Ukraine will do what it must to stop fires from the border.