Ukraine would be signing away its sovereignty by accepting the US minerals deal

If you thought the first U.S. minerals deal with Ukraine was bad enough the new text reads even worse - this one makes that look like charity in comparison.

See FT piece and the link then to the leaked document.

https://www.ft.com/content/896da2e5-daa5-4b4e-a51c-0aef4de95d36

Some might call it extortion, some almost colonial exploitation.

But the US essentially wants to be paid back what it has contributed to Ukraine’s defence thus far, seemingly before Ukraine gets any benefits. Not sure if that is the $122bn or thereabouts which the Kiel Institute (link below) tracks as the U.S. contribution or the $350 billion alternative facts that Trump seems to pushing as the US contribution.

I have to say here that there is zero evidence that the $350 billion figure given by Trump has been the cost to the US of support to Ukraine. Indeed, even of the $122bn spent by the US so far, a large part (I think half) of that never ended up in Ukraine but stayed in the US with weapons purchases and large fees paid to US contractors - it all created lots of US jobs.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

It seems here that in this new fund, the US would dominate decision making with the US appointing three of the five members of its supervisory board.

Seemingly most Ukrainian mineral resources, including oil and gas are included, or put in the scope of the new sovereign wealth fund. This raises big questions as to the status of existing SOEs, and other entities with licences covering these resources - and budget flows then to the Ukrainian government.

I am left here thinking what Ukraine gets out of this deal, as the are no security guarantees, and the concern is actually that thru this deal Ukraine will see an outflow of dividends and royalties as the US looks to get back first that $122bn US contribution thus far to Ukraine’s war effort. The obvious concern here is that this deal acts as a growth drag, not a growth driver. Indeed, with the US looking to stitch up the Ukrainian minerals and investment space, what is left for other partners? Why would Europe, or Asia invest in Ukraine with this deal in place?

Net-net I see this deal as a growth and investment drag on Ukraine.

For all these reasons, and the obvious loss of sovereignty for Ukraine that this deal implies, I just cannot see Ukrainian leaders ever signing up.

Why would they? They get no security assurances in return, but suffer the loss of sovereignty, loss ownership of assets, undermining Ukraine’s fiscal and balance of payments position, the risk of capital outflows related to profit and dividend repatriation.

Indeed, Ukrainians probably see this deal as an effort by the US to exploit Ukrainian weakness, at their time of need, and while millions of Ukrainians have suffered a loss of blood and treasure in defence of Western values and interests, holding the front line against Russian aggression.

If it was not already clear that the Trump administration is not on Ukraine’s side, I think this document kind of spells it out.

And the problem if Ukraine actually signs this deal is that it then shows to everyone that it is totally dependent on any whim of Trump, and is there to be pushed around by the two powers, Russia and the U.S. And why would they trust anything that Trump says on Ukraine, or Russia, given that Trump has now consistently failed to appreciate Ukrainian interests, or red lines, whereas he has consistently conceded to Russian interests and red lines. The assumption by signing this deal is that Ukraine will be signing over its future to Trump, and Putin.

The irony here is that Putin invaded Ukraine to weaken, undermine and capture Ukrainian sovereignty but the US, thru this deal, actually would deal the killer blow to that very sovereignty - getting in to profit from Ukrainian weakness, before Russia does.

This document reads almost like the Treaty of Versailles, imposed on Germany by France after WWI - but I not sure the US realises yet, that Ukraine has not yet lost this war. It can still fight on, whatever Trump and Putin agree, and that is it’s agency still in any peace process. This document probably makes that prospect more likely - Ukrainians will surely realise that there is no upside at this point to bowing to Trump’s conditions for any peace.