Nineteen months into a war that many observers - including critically I think the Russian military - thought would be over in a matter of weeks and understandably I think the consensus has settled on the idea that this will now be a long grinding conflict. A frozen conflict does not really explain it, but the two sides appear well dug in, entrenched (quite literally) and planning certainly for the long haul. But in all this, are there are any real prospects for a peace process? In the text below I try and look at the perspectives on potential peace talks from both the two main combatants but also the views of the others power players, the US, Europe and China.
Wow. One error and non-sequitor after another; a true display of Establishment mid-witery.
Does the author genuinely believe what he's writing, or does he just hope we'll believe it?
I think you are missing on the Ukrainian side why any deal from Russia would be credible. One major obstacle to peace talks is the lack of credibility and trust. Ukraine will fall off the agenda if the war is concluded and without the prestige of a victory it is unlikely that significant reconstruction support will be forthcoming. Russia on the other hand will have time to rearm, stabilize, and retry against a weakened Ukraine.