News is filtering through of an Armenia - Azerbaijan - Türkiye deal over the Zangezur corridor - this follows the visit of Armenian PM Pashinyan to Türkiye earlier this week.
Wow, strong breakdown. The way Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are repositioning themselves shows how fast regional order can shift when the old guard is distracted. Putin’s deterrent is done — he couldnt stop Aliyev in 2023, and he’s barely keeping Pashinyan in his orbit now. The CSTO means nothing. Macron steps in, and Yerevan leans West. Erdogan’s playing this perfectly — normalizing with Armenia, building the Zangezur corridor, and anchoring Türkiye as the bridge from Central Asia to Europe. Baku’s military confidence and Ankara’s timing reshaped the map without firing at NATO — that’s leverage. And Iran? Too busy absorbing Israeli and U.S. strikes to stop it. A year ago they opposed Zangezur. Now they’re sidelined by drones, protests, and quiet panic inside the IRGC. But here’s what I keep coming back to: We’re not just watching new players rise — we’re watching the old order crack. The globalist framework is fracturing—IMF, UN, NATO, even the EU. Everyone sees it. But at the same time, globalism is flexing harder than ever. Not in spite of the chaos—but through it. ESG, digital IDs, global climate rules, AI treaties—they’re all being accelerated. Why? Because more conflict means more justification for central control. And that’s the goal. The vacuum isn’t accidental. It’s useful. I dont we’re not in a vacuum. We’re in transition. From unipolar dominance → to multipolar disorder → toward something more… consolidated. Feels like the world’s splitting into camps—but I wonder if thats just the prelude to a new kind of centralization that hasn’t fully revealed itself yet.
You are spot on that the world is fractioning, but i think the main cause of that are unsustainable and growing wealth gaps in many places across the globe. The obvious 2 way to tackle them are either i) higher taxes (incl. wealth / inheritance) or ii) more (authoritarian) control. Most visible this of course is in the UK and US.
But for hybrid authoritarian regimes with patronage (HARP) it’s both a threat (seizing / taxing their assets in the West) and opportunity (regroup among similar HARP states led by China, BRICS) and they tend to gravitate to each other.
Georgia is prime example of this: GDP per capita almost 2x over last 4 years but clearly this growth was not widely inclusive, so following failed popular revolt comes authoritarian turn more in favour of China (deep-see port, balancing Russia) vs EU (disillusionment after russian invasion into Ukraine, limited economic benefits despite FTA). The irony is that russia will be willing to pay now for Georgia as it loses both Armenia & Azerbaijan
Wow, strong breakdown. The way Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are repositioning themselves shows how fast regional order can shift when the old guard is distracted. Putin’s deterrent is done — he couldnt stop Aliyev in 2023, and he’s barely keeping Pashinyan in his orbit now. The CSTO means nothing. Macron steps in, and Yerevan leans West. Erdogan’s playing this perfectly — normalizing with Armenia, building the Zangezur corridor, and anchoring Türkiye as the bridge from Central Asia to Europe. Baku’s military confidence and Ankara’s timing reshaped the map without firing at NATO — that’s leverage. And Iran? Too busy absorbing Israeli and U.S. strikes to stop it. A year ago they opposed Zangezur. Now they’re sidelined by drones, protests, and quiet panic inside the IRGC. But here’s what I keep coming back to: We’re not just watching new players rise — we’re watching the old order crack. The globalist framework is fracturing—IMF, UN, NATO, even the EU. Everyone sees it. But at the same time, globalism is flexing harder than ever. Not in spite of the chaos—but through it. ESG, digital IDs, global climate rules, AI treaties—they’re all being accelerated. Why? Because more conflict means more justification for central control. And that’s the goal. The vacuum isn’t accidental. It’s useful. I dont we’re not in a vacuum. We’re in transition. From unipolar dominance → to multipolar disorder → toward something more… consolidated. Feels like the world’s splitting into camps—but I wonder if thats just the prelude to a new kind of centralization that hasn’t fully revealed itself yet.
You are spot on that the world is fractioning, but i think the main cause of that are unsustainable and growing wealth gaps in many places across the globe. The obvious 2 way to tackle them are either i) higher taxes (incl. wealth / inheritance) or ii) more (authoritarian) control. Most visible this of course is in the UK and US.
But for hybrid authoritarian regimes with patronage (HARP) it’s both a threat (seizing / taxing their assets in the West) and opportunity (regroup among similar HARP states led by China, BRICS) and they tend to gravitate to each other.
Georgia is prime example of this: GDP per capita almost 2x over last 4 years but clearly this growth was not widely inclusive, so following failed popular revolt comes authoritarian turn more in favour of China (deep-see port, balancing Russia) vs EU (disillusionment after russian invasion into Ukraine, limited economic benefits despite FTA). The irony is that russia will be willing to pay now for Georgia as it loses both Armenia & Azerbaijan